Houston vs. Duke 2025 NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets

Dominant Path Getting Here

Duke entered this NCAA Tournament ranked #1 in both the AP Poll and Kenpom, and they have done nothing to disprove that thus far. However, we also agree with Houston’s #2 ranking in Kenpom, although the Selection Committee made them the overall fourth-best 1-seed, creating this matchup in the semifinals when we think this should have been the final.

This game also pits the best offense in the country in terms of efficiency against the best defense. Duke is the team leading in offense, grading out at an unheard-of 130.1 points per 100 possessions. That makes this the most efficient offense in the history of Kenpom, which dates back to the 1996-97 season, as the first team to crack 130 per 100!

As great as that offense is, the Blue Devils also rank fourth in defensive efficiency. Only two teams in the last 10 years finished in the Top 5 in both efficiencies, and both of those teams won the national title.

Can They Keep It Up?

Duke has been basically unchallenged in this tournament, winning by an average score of 91.8-68.3 over the first four rounds after beating Alabama (#6 in Kenpom) by 20 points in the Elite Eight.

Still, it is probably imperative that the Blue Devils push the pace at least a little bit in this game and not get caught up in the Cougars’ plodding pace, since more possessions would allow their superior offense to shine through. That may be easier said than done, but Duke may be the best-equipped team in the nation to do so.

Best Defense in Country

Houston comes in at 34-4 while riding the country’s longest winning streak at 17 straight games. And this game will put the old adage of “Good defense stops good offense” to the test, with the Cougars leading the nation in both defensive efficiency at 87.4 points per 100 possessions and in raw points allowed at a mere 58.3 per game.

Moreover, like Duke, the Cougs do not suffer much on the other end either while ranking 10th in offensive efficiency at 123.9 points per 100. The caveat there though is that they slow games down to a crawl while ranking 360th out of 364 Division I teams in Tempo Rating at 61.7 possessions.

The bad news offensively for Houston here is they do not figure to score many points inside, as they are an ugly 282nd nationally in 2-point shooting at 48.4% while Duke is third in 2-point defense. The good news, though, is the Cougars are the second-best 3-point shooting team in the land at 39.7%, which would help them even if Duke can effectively quicken the tempo.

Best Bet Side

We think the outright winner of this game will be determined by the pace, but we are betting on Houston at a seemingly inflated spread regardless.

If this game stays at the Cougars’ preferred tempo, then we see Houston pulling the upset. Most likely, however, we see Duke quickening the tempo enough to win on the court, but Houston still takes this game down to the final buzzer with their three-point shooting.

Predicted Score: Duke 71 – Houston 70

NCAAB Pick: Houston +5 (-105) at BetOnline

Houston +5 (-105)

Visit Site

Smidge of Total Value

While the Houston side is our preferred play in this game, we do also see a little bit of value on the Over, at least enough for a fractional unit. As great as the Houston defense is, they have not faced an offense as great as Duke all year, so we still see the Blue Devils reaching 70 points, which would still be well below their season’s average.

However, since the difference between our projected total and this posted total is only about five points, our recommendation is to bet on the Over for half a unit.

NCAAB Pick: Over 136 (-107) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Over 136 (-107)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.