Houston vs. Duke NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bet

Houston’s Imperfect Defense

This matchup might seem difficult to figure out because it appears to be a battle between the best offense (Duke) and the best defense (Houston).

But we’ve already seen what Houston has done against the best offenses because the Cougars have played five games already against teams that rank top-six in offensive efficiency.

In those games, they allowed 74 points to Auburn, 78 to Alabama (excluding overtime), 72 to Texas Tech (excluding overtime), 61 to Texas Tech, and 76 to Gonzaga.

When Houston allowed 61 points in the rematch with Texas Tech, the Red Raiders, who are in love with attempting threes but can be inconsistent about making them, missed 24 three-point attempts, many of which were wide-open.

Defenses should obviously not get credit for when their opponent misses wide-open threes, so this anomalous 61-point instance doesn’t mean anything.

The fact is that top-notch offenses reliably score over 70 points against Houston.

Why Duke’s Offense Is The Best

Duke is the best offense that Houston will have seen. This is a fact and not an opinion: the Blue Devils rank number one in offensive efficiency.

They are so good on offense because they can beat defenses in so many ways. They have a lot of guys, like Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Tyrese Proctor who will beat their on-ball defender off the dribble. Flagg, who is so dangerous in the ball-screen game, is elite inside, as is Khaman Maluach, who ranks seventh in two-point efficiency.

With their ability to achieve dribble penetration and their tough ball-screen game, they thrive in the paint. But they also have four players who convert over 40 percent of their three-point attempts and another player who shoots 37.4 percent from behind the arc.

It is impossible for defenses both to contain Duke’s paint game — its driving threats, its rollers in ball-screen actions, and its big-man game which includes lobs and post-ups — and to contain its shooters.

Duke’s offense, in all its magnificence, is clicking at the right time. The Blue Devils have scored at least 85 points in all four of their NCAA Tournament games, including 100 points against Arizona and its 36th-ranked defense.

Duke’s Balanced Defense

Arizona’s offense is the only group to push Duke. It took an absurd level of efficiency behind the arc and some ridiculous shot-making, and yet the Blue Devils still won by seven points because of how good their offense is.

In its following game, Duke’s defense redeemed itself against a human version of Alabama. Despite ranking fourth in offensive efficiency, the Crimson Tide scored all of 65 points against Duke. The team that had won at Auburn, beaten Kentucky twice, won at A&M lost by 20 points to the Blue Devils.

Defensive Strategy Against Houston

Duke’s defensive performance against Alabama is instructive for its outlook against a Houston team that relies very heavily on making threes.

Against Alabama, the Blue Devils kept elite rim protector Maluach — their 7’2 250-pounder who ranks 81st in block rate and excels at altering shots even when he doesn’t get blocks — in the paint to keep the interior secure and to be able to lock down the perimeter without their defense getting bent out of shape.

Now, drop coverage is not perfect for a perimeter defense as it is particularly vulnerable to pick-and-pop plays because the big defender (Maluach) will be positioned in the paint while an opposing big man will “pop” behind the arc. Alabama had a 6’10 big in Aiden Sherrell operate as a pick-and-pop threat, and he made a couple of threes.

Houston’s Offensive Limitations

Houston will create even less of a worry for Duke in that regard. Its pick-and-pop big is Terrance Arceneaux plays behind J’Wan Roberts, who they’ll want to lean on the most inside even though Maluach will stifle him. Arceneaux is also just a 6’6 power forward, a rather small guy at 205 pounds who would be useless because he’d just get bullied inside by the superstar Flagg who doesn’t only do bully ball but does like to rely on it.

Otherwise, against Alabama, Duke’s defenders showed their ability to fight through dribble hand-offs and ball-screens to help prevent shooters from getting open.

The Blue Devils also did some intricate switching, making use of the versatility of guys like Flagg and Sion James. They are able to keep versatile and lengthy defenders — all of Duke’s starters are 6-6 or taller — positioned onto an opposing ball-handler.

When Alabama tried to maximize space for its spot-up shooters, Duke was able to rely on the length of its defenders and the crispness of its rotations to shut them down, which is why Alabama’s best shooter Aden Holloway finished the game with all of five points.

Duke’s defense is balanced because it locks down the perimeter but also has elite shot-blockers patrolling the paint and the basket.

Interior Defense and Rebounding

Houston is horribly inefficient inside the arc, where Duke’s defense is so strong with Flagg and especially Maluach.

LJ Cryer will have to have a beyond amazing game, but Duke has the quality in its perimeter defense to deal with guards — like him and Emanuel Sharp — who prefer to shoot threes.

All of this is plain from watching Duke’s last game, for example, but there is still one worry: Houston’s ability to create second-chance points via offensive rebounding.

With their length, especially, the Blue Devils rank 166 spots higher than Tennessee does in defensive rebounding rate — the Blue Devils rank 44th in the category.

They will not let Houston get too many second-chance points, so there is no path for the Cougars to attain a competitive point total. They needed a lot of offensive rebounds and good three-point shooting to reach 69 points against Tennessee but will achieve neither against Duke’s defense.

Takeaway

Duke will score in the mid-70s, while I see Houston at best in the mid-60s.

The Blue Devils will dominate the interior and the perimeter on both sides of the ball in what will be a ten- or eleven-point victory.

NCAAB Pick: Duke -4.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Duke -4.5 (-110)

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