Illinois vs. Oregon College Football Week 9 Picks: Is the Total Too High?

Oregon Crushed Purdue

Jordan James got Oregon off to a fast start with two touchdowns on their opening two drives, while Dillon Gabriel added two more through the air as the Ducks blanked Purdue 35-0 on Friday night, marking Oregon’s first road shutout since 1992.

James was efficient on the ground, logging 10 carries for 50 yards and his fifth consecutive game with a touchdown. Gabriel was sharp, completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Tez Johnson hauled in seven receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown, helping Oregon stay undefeated.

Despite some missed opportunities offensively, the Ducks’ defense stole the show. Oregon’s secondary was outstanding, building on their strong showing against Ohio State, where they limited a high-powered Buckeyes offense to 31 points.

On Friday, they stifled Purdue’s passing game, allowing just 93 passing yards, no touchdowns, and intercepting a pass. They also held Ryan Browne to under 50% in completions. Jabbar Muhammad, Brandon Johnson, and Kam Alexander were standouts in Oregon’s lockdown secondary, which dominated the Purdue passing attack.

Evan Stewart, a Texas A&M transfer, followed up his breakout performance against Ohio State with another strong outing, catching four passes for 96 yards.

Over the past two games, Stewart has compiled 11 receptions for 245 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his growing chemistry with Gabriel. If he continues to develop, Stewart could form a dynamic duo with Tez Johnson, making Oregon’s offense even harder to stop.

However, the running game struggled. Despite James’ strong showing, the Ducks managed only 131 rushing yards on 3.7 yards per carry, disappointing given Purdue’s porous run defense, which ranks near the bottom of the FBS. That aspect of the offense needs improvement moving forward.

Illinois Cruised Past Michigan

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer accounted for two touchdowns—one passing and one rushing—leading the Illini to a 21-7 upset over Michigan on Saturday. Tanner Arkin contributed a two-yard touchdown reception from Altmyer in the second quarter and broke off a 36-yard run on a fake punt, setting up Altmyer’s one-yard score.

The win was Illinois’ first over Michigan since 2009, snapping a six-game losing streak to the Wolverines. Michigan, meanwhile, suffered back-to-back losses for the first time since 2020.

Jabe Jacas was a force on defense for Illinois, tallying 13 tackles, including six solo stops and 2.5 of the Illini’s six sacks on Michigan quarterback Jack Tuttle. Altmyer finished 9 of 18 for 80 yards and added 48 rushing yards on 10 carries.

Illinois led 13-7 at halftime but could have extended their lead further, as they reached Michigan territory five times but only capitalized with one touchdown and two field goals. This victory marks a bounce-back for Illinois, who had a meltdown against Purdue earlier in the month, blowing a 27-3 lead before eking out a 50-49 win in the final minutes.

Key Matchups

The stage is set for a compelling matchup between Illinois and Oregon, with both teams coming off notable wins. Oregon’s high-powered offense led by Gabriel has been firing on all cylinders, while their defense showcased its ability to dominate, especially in the secondary.

Meanwhile, Illinois is riding high after a defensive masterclass against Michigan, led by Altmyer’s dual-threat capabilities and Jacas anchoring a fearsome pass rush. This game will come down to whether Illinois’ stout defense can contain Oregon’s explosive attack and if Illinois can generate enough offense to keep pace.

Dillon Gabriel vs. Illinois’ Defense

Gabriel has been nearly flawless, he completed over 80% of his passes against Purdue while distributing the ball effectively to Johnson and Stewart. However, he’ll face a tough test against Illinois’ defense, which held Michigan to just seven points.

Jacas, with his 2.5 sacks last week, will be critical in pressuring Gabriel and disrupting Oregon’s rhythm. Illinois’ secondary must also maintain tight coverage, especially against the emerging tandem of Johnson and Stewart. If Illinois can force Gabriel into mistakes, it could swing momentum in their favor.

Oregon’s Secondary vs. Luke Altmyer

Oregon’s secondary was dominant against Purdue, limiting them to under 100 passing yards and forcing a crucial interception. Altmyer, on the other hand, was efficient but not explosive against Michigan, throwing for just 80 yards.

Illinois will need Altmyer to extend plays with his legs and hit timely throws to keep drives alive. Oregon’s defense will look to repeat their lockdown performance and potentially force Altmyer into difficult third-and-long situations, making it hard for Illinois to sustain offensive drives.

Illinois’ Rushing Attack vs. Oregon’s Front Seven

Illinois struggled to capitalize on their red zone opportunities against Michigan, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. They’ll need to improve in this area if they hope to keep up with Oregon’s scoring pace. The run game, led by Altmyer’s ability to scramble, must find holes against Oregon’s defensive front.

Oregon’s run defense has been solid but will be tested by Illinois’ physical style. If Illinois can grind out yards on the ground and control the clock, it could limit Oregon’s explosive offense.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Turnovers could play a pivotal role, as both defenses have proven capable of generating takeaways. Oregon’s ability to capitalize on short fields and Illinois’ knack for stalling drives in the red zone might dictate the flow of the game. Special teams, particularly in the field goal department, could also factor into the outcome, especially if Illinois struggles to punch the ball into the end zone.

The Pick

This game will likely be a battle of contrasting styles, with Oregon’s up-tempo offense looking to stretch the field, while Illinois aims to grind out long, clock-chewing drives. Oregon’s ability to force Illinois into passing situations will be key, as Altmyer hasn’t proven to be a consistent deep-ball threat.

On the other hand, Illinois’ defense should be able to slow Oregon down to some extent, but containing Gabriel and his receivers for four quarters will be a tall order.

Ultimately, Oregon’s offensive firepower, combined with their opportunistic defense, should give them the edge in this matchup. Look for Gabriel to take advantage of a few key mismatches in the secondary and for Oregon’s defense to force Altmyer into a couple of costly turnovers. Illinois can hang around early, but I feel that this total is a bit high.

College Football Pick: Under 54.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Under 54.5 (-108)

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