Top NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Capping the first day of the bowl season is the college football betting matchup for the Independence Bowl, and our handicapper is expecting an entertaining collision between California and Texas Tech.
Let’s take a lot at some of the best NCAAF odds that are being offered by our main offshore sportsbooks.
California Golden Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, November 16, 2023 – 09:15 PM ET at Independence Stadium
Texas Tech and California are teetering on the break-even level with 6-6 records, and their collision in Shreveport will determine which side ends up basking in the glow of a winning record…and which one spends the offseason lamenting a losing campaign.
Teams Meet for Just the 2nd Time
Texas Tech went out -3 for the matchup, and that spread is hanging steady. Most shops are carrying 58 for the total.
We’re coming up on the 19th anniversary of the only previous meeting between California and Texas Tech, and it was a matchup that only took place because of some shady events near the end of the 2004 season.
The Golden Bears took a late hit in the BCS rankings despite only one loss to Pac-10 and eventual national champ USC. Their resume suggested a marquee bowl invite, but Cal ended up facing the Red Raiders at the Holiday Bowl just down the road in San Diego.
A guy named Aaron Rodgers was at quarterback for the favored Golden Bears, but it was Texas Tech pulling off the upset in a 45-31 scoreboard buster.
Can Ott Run Bears to an Upset?
A 4-game skid in October and November made a bowl trip appear a longshot for Justin Wilcox and the Golden Bears. To California’s credit, the team closed on a 3-game win streak that included a couple of road dubyas.
The clinching sixth win was especially impressive, as the Golden Bears made their final Pac-12 trip to UCLA as a 9½-point underdog at BetOnline Review. A 100-yard kickoff return in the second quarter was huge in California’s ultimate 33-7 beatdown of the Bruins, and the Golden Bears forcing UCLA into four turnovers also didn’t hurt.
Forcing turnovers was something California did very well during the regular season, coming up with 25 to lead the Pac-12. Unfortunately, the Golden Bears also did a poor job holding onto the football themselves, coughing it up 24 times.
Jaydn Ott was the California star with that 100-yard return against UCLA, and the sophomore led the Pac-12 with 1,260 rushing yards this season. He’ll be a huge part of the Golden Bears’ game plan facing a Texas Tech defense that ranked 97th nationally against the run.
Will Turnovers Once Again Derail Tech?
Playing in a bowl game seemed a remote possibility for Joey McGuire and the Red Raiders when they got off to a 1-3 start. When the October schedule came to an end, Texas Tech was a puny 3-5 and facing an uphill November slate.
The Red Raiders found their groove to win three in a row at that point –one of those wins an upset of Kansas on the road as 3½-point underdogs on the NCAAF odds– to reach the 6-win plateau before closing the season in Austin.
There won’t be much of Texas Tech’s loss to playoff-bound Texas in the end-of-season highlight reel. The Longhorns had the 14-point spread covered less than five minutes into the second quarter and steamrolled the Red Raiders in a 57-7 laugher.
Texas Tech was a middling team statistically on defense in the Big 12, but did a decent job against the pass. To that end, the Red Raiders have a couple of injury concerns that need monitoring for this matchup with DB Tyler Owens (ankle) and LB Steve Linton (back) both questionable to face the Golden Bears.
Turnovers also hurt the Red Raiders in the loss to Texas, with the Longhorns picking off three errant Behren Morton passes. Texas Tech finished last in the Big 12 in turnover margin, giving the pigskin away 21 times and only taking it back 13 times.
Cal Making 1st Bowl Appearance in 4 Years
The 3-game win streak to close the slate pushed California to its first bowl appearance since 2019. This will be just the fourth bowl for the Golden Bears in the last 10 years, and they went 2-1 both straight-up and against the spread in the previous three.
It is the 25th time in their history for the Golden Bears to play in a bowl, going 12-11-1 in others. They have dropped their last two matchups against a Big 12 team, TCU in both cases, and 1-3 facing Big 12 teams in a bowl.
Texas Tech is bowling for a third consecutive season and the 41st time in school history. The Red Raiders beat Ole Miss in last year’s Texas Bowl as small underdogs and crushed Mississippi State as even bigger underdogs in the 2021 Liberty Bowl.
Since beating California in the 2004 Holiday Bowl, the Red Raiders are 2-3 against Pac-10/12 teams, including a 38-30 loss at home to Oregon a few months ago.
The Pick
Shreveport weather this time of year can be like a box of chocolates. Nearly two weeks from the game, things look okay –low-50s, partly cloudy at kickoff– but it’s something bettors will want to monitor before making their picks.
My crystal ball says Texas Tech covers with a 36-30 final that slides past the total.
NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech Over 58 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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