Iowa State vs. Arizona State Big 12 Championship Game Picks: The Sun Devils Have Too Much Firepower

Iowa State Prevailed Against Kansas State

Rocco Becht accounted for three touchdowns—two passing and one rushing—as Iowa State defeated Kansas State 29-21 on a frigid Saturday night, securing the first 10-win season in program history.

Becht struggled with accuracy, completing 13 of 35 passes for 137 yards, but made critical plays when it mattered. Abu Sama III contributed 81 rushing yards on 15 carries, while Jayden Higgins hauled in three catches for 53 yards and a touchdown.

The Cyclones’ defense played a pivotal role in the second half. After DJ Giddens broke loose for a 36-yard run that put Kansas State inside the 5-yard line, Iowa State’s defense stiffened, denying a touchdown.

Moments later, Darien Porter surged through the line to block Chris Tennant’s 21-yard field goal attempt. The defense also delivered a safety when Jacob Ellis pressured Avery Johnson into an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone.

With seven conference wins this season—the second-most in school history—Iowa State will now prepare for its second appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game.

The Cyclones previously fell to Oklahoma in the 2020 title game. Their 17 wins over the last two seasons mark the program’s best-ever two-year stretch, and they’ve now finished in the top four of the Big 12 in seven of the last eight seasons.

Arizona State Crushed Arizona

Arizona State secured a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a dominant 49-7 win over rival Arizona. Cam Skattebo powered the Sun Devils’ offense, rushing for 177 yards and three touchdowns, all in the first half. Quarterback Sam Leavitt threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, completing 17 of 22 passes, while Jordyn Tyson added eight receptions for 143 yards and a score.

The Sun Devils raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead and piled up 643 total yards, barely easing up in the second half. Skattebo’s relentless ground attack and Leavitt’s efficient passing left no doubt as Arizona State punched its ticket to the conference title game.

Key Matchups

Iowa State boasts a gritty defense capable of delivering game-changing plays, while Arizona State rides a high-powered offense that can overwhelm opponents with big plays both on the ground and through the air. Both teams enter this matchup with momentum, making this a must-watch contest.

Rocco Becht vs. Arizona State’s Secondary

Becht showed flashes of playmaking ability with three total touchdowns in Iowa State’s win over Kansas State last week, but his accuracy remains a concern after completing just 37% of his passes in that game.

Arizona State’s defensive backfield will look to capitalize on his inconsistency, forcing him into high-pressure situations. If Becht can manage the game and limit turnovers, Iowa State’s offense could find just enough rhythm to keep up.

Cam Skattebo vs. Iowa State’s Front Seven

Skattebo’s 177-yard, three-touchdown performance was the cornerstone of Arizona State’s blowout victory over Arizona on Saturday. Iowa State’s defense, however, thrives in high-leverage moments, as evidenced by their goal-line stand and safety against Kansas State.

The Cyclones must contain Skattebo early to avoid letting Arizona State dictate the tempo with their run game. This matchup is pivotal—if Skattebo runs wild, Iowa State’s chances will dwindle quickly.

Special Teams and Game-Changing Plays

Darien Porter’s blocked field goal and Jacob Ellis’ safety highlight Iowa State’s ability to create momentum-shifting moments. Arizona State will need to ensure clean execution in special teams to avoid giving away points. Conversely, if Iowa State can replicate those kinds of plays, they might steal critical possessions in a tight game.

Arizona State’s Explosive Offense vs. Iowa State’s Defense

With Leavitt completing 77% of his passes and throwing for three touchdowns last week, Arizona State’s offense has proven efficient and explosive. Iowa State’s defense, though, excels in forcing opponents into mistakes in key moments.

The Cyclones must disrupt Leavitt’s rhythm and prevent long drives, focusing on eliminating big plays from Tyson, who posted 143 receiving yards and a touchdown against Arizona.

The Pick

This game will likely come down to which team can impose its style of play. Arizona State’s explosive offense is capable of putting up points in bunches, but Iowa State’s opportunistic defense thrives on creating chaos and flipping the script. Expect a close contest, with Arizona State’s balanced attack testing the Cyclones’ ability to keep pace offensively.

Ultimately, Arizona State’s firepower, led by Skattebo on the ground and Leavitt through the air, should give them the edge. Iowa State’s defense will keep it close with timely stops, but their offensive inconsistency may leave them unable to capitalize on opportunities.

College Football Pick: Arizona State -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Arizona State -2.5 (-108)

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