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Jaguars vs. Bills Monday Night Football Pick: Buffalo Ready To Bulldoze
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Jason Lake
- September 18, 2024
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NFL Pick: Bills –5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
It’s like we’re learning the lessons from 20 years ago all over again. If you’re one of the millions who have just started betting on NFL games, there are certain truths you need to learn on the road to mastery. Here’s an old chestnut from the mid-Aughts: The offensive line is where the gold is at.
Yes, the quarterback is the most important player on the football field – and you should pay more attention to these guys, back-ups included, than any other position. But the casual bettors at top-rated sportsbooks that make up such a large percentage of the marketplace spend an average of roughly 0.0 seconds looking at the offensive linemen protecting said quarterbacks.
Or failing to protect them. The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) have a gifted quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, but they’re squandering those gifts by surrounding Lawrence with human turnstiles. It’s enough to make the Buffalo Bills (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) the easy choice for our Week 3 Monday Night Football picks; Heritage Sports has Buffalo laying five points on their NFL odds board as we go to press.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, September 23, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
What’s Wrong With Trevor Lawrence?
He’s in Jacksonville. I’ll save the epic “Winning vs. Profit” rant for another day, but in my humble estimation, Jaguars owner Shahid Khan is thinking entirely about the latter. He called the 2024 Jaguars “the best team assembled in franchise history,” which sounds like something his son Tony (who acts as Jacksonville’s “chief football strategy officer”) cooked up to sell the next All Elite Wrestling show.
Someone tell the Khans that protecting your most valuable asset is a smart strategy. They just signed Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275-million contract extension, $142 million of that guaranteed; meanwhile, here are the five starting linemen they’ve got in front of him, including their 2024 player grades at Pro Football Focus:
- LT Cam Robinson (62.9)
- LG Ezra Cleveland (59.4)
- C Mitch Morse (68.6)
- RG Brandon Scherff (49.4)
- RT Anton Harrison (42.5)
At least Jacksonville was able to sign Morse away from the Bills this offseason to replace Luke Fortner (44.3 grade in 2023). But they still can’t keep Lawrence upright; he’s been sacked seven times already in two games, with 11 additional quarterback hits. Sad.
Is This Buffalo’s Year?
Maybe. It’s been a while since the Bills were among the very top favorites on the Super Bowl odds board, but they are in third place (+950) at Bovada, following Kansas City (+475) and San Francisco (+600).
That’s rarified air compared to the Jaguars at +6600. To be fair, the Bills don’t have a lockdown offensive line in front of QB Josh Allen; Pro Football Network had their unit ranked No. 16 overall last week, just four spots ahead of Jacksonville’s. But this is a run-first team now, and Allen, who has legs for days, has been sacked just twice in 2024.
The difference between these two offenses after two weeks is staggering. According to nfelo, the Bills are second overall at plus-0.22 EPA (Expected Points above Average) on offense; Jacksonville is No. 20 at minus-0.09 EPA. That’s a 0.31-point advantage for Buffalo per play.
Football is a team sport, of course. Both these teams have reputations as defensive juggernauts, but the Bills (minus-0.10 EPA, No. 9) are the only ones getting the job done. The Jaguars rank No. 21 on that side of the ball at plus-0.02 EPA; remember, minus EPA is a good thing on defense.
The Pick
As a rule of thumb, two weeks is a good enough sample size to start evaluating where NFL teams are at. A lot can change between now and Super Bowl Sunday, but at this moment in time, Buffalo (plus-18.9 on the Simple Rating System at Pro Football Reference) is out-performing Jacksonville (minus-9.1 SRS) by way more than five points per game. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Bills –5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
