Jets vs. 49ers Monday Night Football Picks: Fade Rodgers, Follow San Fran

I’ll believe it when I see it. The New York Jets have been one of the most popular NFL picks this offseason, presumably because Aaron Rogers will be their starting quarterback for Week 1. Rogers and the Jets opened as 6-point road dogs for their Monday Night Football matchup with the San Francisco 49ers; New York is now a 4-point puppy at most online sportsbooks as we go to press.

You may recall that Rogers also started Week 1 for the Jets last year. That didn’t work out so well for the team and player – but maybe the former four-time league MVP can recover from his ruptured Achilles and lead New York (7-10 SU, 6-10-1 ATS) out of the wilderness at age 40.

Maybe. As you can see above, I’ve got the 49ers in my Week 1 NFL picks, and I’ve got them at -4.5 with the +100 price on vigorish at Bovada. Selling that half-point off the not-so-magic number 4 is an easy call; as for the Niners, they don’t inspire all that much confidence here at the ranch, but at least they’re a somewhat proven commodity heading into Monday’s contest.

Are the Jets a Fraud?

This is the first NFL offseason I can remember where the word “fraud” was used so liberally. The Jets are an easy target, given the off-field machinations of their quarterback – and owner/chairman/CEO Woody Johnson.

With Rogers, it’s about his health, and how willing he’s been in the past to lie about it. Having said that, it’s been 12 months since his injury, ample time for most athletes to recover; the chances of re-tearing the same Achilles are somewhere around 2% across all patients.

Then again, Rogers does turn 41 this December, so he’s more at risk of falling apart than your average NFL quarterback, ayahuasca, and dark rooms notwithstanding. And even if Rogers is healthy, his mobility will naturally be limited by his now-shorter Achilles tendon.

I’d be even more worried about Johnson if I were a Jets fan. He’s all hat and no cattle when it comes to being an NFL owner; since Johnson bought the team in 2000, they have gone from plausible AFC East contenders to 13 straight years without a playoff appearance – and just one winning season during that span. The proof is in the pudding.

Are the Niners Tapped Out?

I’d be a lot more jazzed about putting San Francisco (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS last year) in my football picks if they didn’t have such high expectations – and so much mileage after making deep runs into four of the last five postseasons.

At least it’s still Week 1. The Niners will have close to a full complement of players on the field this Monday, including camp holdouts Brandon Aiyuk at wide receiver and Trent Williams at left tackle. On paper, this has been the best team in the league since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback and started doing his best Tom Brady impersonation. Why jump off this trolley now?

Things could go sideways for San Fran later down the road after those high-mileage bodies have taken more of a beating; the Niners started the 2023 campaign at 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS before dropping three straight. This 2024 squad might not be as deep as last year’s, either.

The Pick

For the moment, everything is Camelot. The 49ers don’t have all the earmarks of a 5-star lock, and nobody really knows quite what the Jets are capable of, so keep your bet size small, but put the defending NFC champs in your Week 1 picks – and may the prolate spheroid be with you all year long.

NFL Pick: 49ers -4.5 (+100) at Bovada

49ers -4.5 (+100)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.