Jets vs. Steelers Sunday Night Football Picks: Is Davante Adams the Fix for Aaron Rodgers?

Drama in Prime Time

The Jets just need a win out of desperation to end this 3-game losing streak with every loss being painfully close at the end. They already fired head coach Robert Saleh, but they had 11 penalties against Buffalo, missed two easy field goals, and Aaron Rodgers threw another game-ending interception for the second week in a row while targeting Mike Williams.

That led to a Davante Adams trade on Tuesday, and he is expected to make his team debut in this one. There is also major news with the Steelers as it is unclear if they will keep Justin Fields at quarterback or if veteran Russell Wilson will make his team debut under center.

You might be sick of the Jets in prime time again, but they have been a soap opera, and we know the Steelers usually are stuck in close games. This could be a good one.

Are the Jets Fixable?

Despite the 2-4 record and chaos of firing coach Saleh so early, the Jets are fixable in a very flawed AFC. The fact that they’re favored on the road in this game against a 4-2 team should tell you that things aren’t a complete dumpster fire here.

First, the schedule has not been kind as the Jets have lost to the 49ers (still the odds-on favorite in NFC), Vikings (only 5-0 team in NFC that has been embarrassing every quarterback), and Bills (one of the best teams with a top quarterback and MVP candidate).

Second, the games have all been close for the last month. The field conditions with the rain were poor against Denver, and the Jets could have won that game with a 50-yard field goal in the final minute. Despite falling behind 17-0 in London to the Vikings, they made that a game before Rodgers threw a late interception. Then Monday night’s game could have easily been a win if kicker Greg Zuerlein again didn’t miss a pair of very makeable kicks when the game was tied at 20.

They have been right there, and often against top competition. While Rodgers had some unusually bad interceptions in London, let’s not forget the Jets forced Sam Darnold and that Minnesota offense into its worst game of the season.

But there are flaws. Rodgers hasn’t been sharp enough as you’d like, his chemistry with Williams is horrible, his connection with Garrett Wilson is not as good as his connection with Davante Adams, and the offensive line is far from elite. Tyron Smith is really struggling at left tackle.

Rodgers Ready for Rebound?

But the Jets showed a better, sharper offense against Buffalo in a game that wasn’t played on a poor field or against an elite Minnesota defense. If you take out Williams and replace him with Adams, then Rodgers has weapons in Breece Hall, Wilson, Adams, and his connection with Allen Lazard still looks great.

The concern this week is Adams’ hamstring. Did he really have a bad injury that caused him to miss the last few games in Vegas, or were the Raiders playing it safe to keep his trade value as high as possible? Something tells me he’ll be good to go in this game, but you do worry about aggravating a hamstring injury. Then if he leaves this game early, they’re right back to trotting Williams out there, who probably is mad after Rodgers publicly blasted his route running on the game-ending pick Monday night.

If Rodgers is in his comfort zone with Adams, and the Jets don’t allow T.J. Watt to ruin the game for them, then they should find success in this game. The Steelers have played a lot of inexperienced quarterbacks this season such as Bo Nix (Broncos), Anthony Richardson (Colts) before he was injured, and Aidan O’Connell (Raiders) last week.

The Steelers were picked apart by veterans like Joe Flacco (Colts) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys) even if Prescott nearly ruined the game with some turnovers. But he still delivered in the end to beat them in Week 5.

The Steelers are a bit of a paper tiger and have not been as battle tested as the Jets already this year.

Russell Wilson or Justin Fields? Does It Matter?

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin caused a bit of an uproar on Tuesday when he said Russell Wilson could be considered to start this Sunday night after Justin Fields started the first 6 games this year. Wilson is expected to get some 1st-team reps in practice, and many are reading into this that he’s going to start.

It’s not official yet which quarterback will start, but it’s hard to say if it matters a ton in this matchup. The Jets have a very solid pass defense that can put corner Sauce Gardner on George Pickens, the only major wide receiver threat the Steelers have. The Jets have been more vulnerable against the run, but the Steelers are struggling to block well for Najee Harris and their other backs. The offensive line has gone through a lot of injuries.

When it comes to the pass rush, Fields is more elusive and quicker than the aging Wilson. But both quarterbacks like to hold the ball long and make things happen. Wilson is still a bit faster in his decision making, has far better accuracy on his throws, and more of the playbook is likely going to be at his disposal as it feels like the Steelers try to hide Fields on 3rd downs and early in games.

But if you’re expecting a close game and duel with Aaron Rodgers on the other side, you probably would be better off starting Wilson if you’re Pittsburgh. The fact is Fields just does not deliver when he has to score an above-average number of points or win the game at the end.

• In his career, Fields is 0-22 when his team allows more than 20 points in a game.
• Fields is also 2-18 (.100) at 4th-quarter comeback opportunities, the worst record among active starters.

Rodgers has had his share of struggles too in his career in the clutch, and we’ve seen it 3 weeks in a row this season. But compared to Fields, Rodgers looks like the most ice cold version of Joe Montana with the game on the line.

But Wilson also hasn’t played all year, and there’s no telling how he’ll fare in these new surroundings with a battered line and a weakened receiving corps. It’s a gamble for sure to bench Fields, but it’s also a fact the Steelers need much better quarterback play to keep winning than what Fields is giving them. He’s on pace to lead the league in fumbles, and while he technically has 1 interception on the season, he’s had several more dropped or negated by a penalty.

Tomlin would be absolutely justified in benching Fields for Wilson, who was going to be the starter anyway before his calf injury in camp. But we’ll just have to see what Tomlin decides. Either way, it shouldn’t have a huge impact on how high scoring or close this game is in the end.

Prop Pick: Jets Team Total (O/U 17.5 Points)

Believe it or not, Aaron Rodgers has only faced Mike Tomlin’s Steelers 3 times in his career. He was injured in the meetings in 2013 and 2017. He’s 2-1 with 8 touchdowns and no interceptions in those games, and he’s led his team to at least 27 points every time.

Obviously, Rodgers is not the same quarterback he was in 2009-10, or even in 2021 when he last played the Steelers. By the way, Davante Adams was held to 64 yards in that game as Rodgers spread the ball around well.

But Rodgers found a way to lead the Jets to 17 points against a tough Minnesota defense. They scored 20 on Buffalo, and they missed a pair of easy field goals. This offense is slowly putting things together, and the weather shouldn’t be bad Sunday night in Pittsburgh, and the field isn’t all torn up yet. It should be fine and a better playing surface than MetLife.

Rodgers is really running out of chances to not look like an epic bust of a trade for the Jets here. They already fired Saleh, they traded for Adams, so now it’s his chance to put up some points and get this team on track. There’s definitely good value in over 17.5 points as the Steelers struggle with veteran quarterbacks who can pick them apart from the pocket.

There just aren’t many of those quarterbacks left in the NFL right now.

NFL Pick: New York Jets Over 17.5 Points (-130) at Bovada

New York Jets Over 17.5 Points (-130)

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Jets vs. Steelers (+1.5): Who Covers the Spread?

We know Mike Tomlin is very good as a home underdog in his career. For his career, he is 18-6-3 ATS as a home underdog, the best record by any team in the NFL since 2007. He’s also won 59.3% of those games outright, the 2nd-best record. The only team higher is Green Bay, a record largely engineered by the Rodgers era.

But this is a tiny spread, and small spread (exactly -1.5) road favorites have been on a nice run with an 8-2 ATS record over the last 10 such games going back to 2023. They are also 15-6 ATS since November 2021. That sample includes the 49ers winning 30-7 in Pittsburgh in Week 1 of the 2023 season.

This feels like a tough spot for Tomlin as the Jets are essentially in a must-win situation and have come so close 3 weeks in a row. If he starts Wilson, it feels inevitable that the Steelers are going to lose some high-scoring game while people call him out for benching Fields, ignoring the fact that Fields is 0-22 in his career when the opponent scores 21-plus points.

Remember, the Steelers got lucky in drawing Kirk Cousins in Atlanta in Week 1 when he didn’t look healthy or sure of himself yet after that Achilles injury. They got lucky when Justin Herbert came into their game injured (ankle) and left early after aggravating said injury. In the 2 games where Fields was at a real mismatch with the healthy opposing quarterbacks (Flacco and Prescott), the Steelers lost.

Look for that to continue as Rodgers gets it done this week on the road and the Jets end their losing streak for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Jets -1.5 (-110) at Bovada

Jets -1.5 (-110)

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