2024 Presidential Debate Betting Odds: Biden vs. Trump Prop Bets
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Marco Marin
- June 26, 2024
This Thursday on CNN, President Joe Biden will debate Donald Trump in the 1st presidential debate of the 2024 election season. They usually do these debates in September or October, but Biden challenged Trump to this early one and it should be unlike any debate we’ve seen them have before.
Political betting sites have already posted dozens of prop bets for the CNN debate.
Who Do CNN’s Strict Debate Protocols Benefit?
There are some new rules for this 90-minute debate, which will take place at CNN studios in Atlanta:
- Microphones are muted except for the time when one candidate is permitted to speak.
- Two commercial breaks are included.
- No communication with campaign staff is allowed during the breaks.
- Candidates cannot bring written notes to the debate stage, but they will be given pen and paper to take notes during it.
- No live audience.
It will be very interesting to see how strongly the mute is enforced as candidates have a history of interrupting speakers and to keep talking well after their time’s expired. Speaking over the other candidate led to Biden’s infamous “Will you shut up, man?” response to Trump in a 2020 debate.
Look for Trump to target Biden heavily on inflation and the economy. As for Biden, he will likely focus on Trump’s conviction in the N.Y. Hush Money case and other pending court cases.
A win in a June debate may not be enough for either candidate to carry over to the November election. But it should be entertaining, and it is a chance for the country to see the differences between these candidates.
Donald Trump to Be Muted?
A lot of attention will be paid to the new rules for this CNN-hosted debate. The big one is the ability to mute a candidate’s microphone should he speak when it is not his turn.
However, in a crowd-less studio, and assuming the candidates are not locked in a soundproof box, isn’t it likely we are going to hear the candidate speak out loud when it’s not their turn even if the mic is muted? They still have a voice. And we know Trump from his past debates loves to interrupt his opponent, especially Biden as he did in 2020.
Now the question is will CNN have the guts to mute Trump if he’s interrupting Biden? We think it will happen before the debate ends. This looks like great value cause if they never mute him once, then what’s the point of making that a rule?
Debate Prop Pick: Over 0.5 Times Donald Trump’s Mic Will be Muted by Moderators During Debate (+307) at Bookmaker
Donald Trump’s Love of Witch Hunts
Donald Trump has loved citing the many “Witch hunts” that have followed him throughout his political career. He referred to his impeachment trials as witch hunts, he referred to the Robert Mueller investigation as a witch hunt, and he has called his indictments in the New Yok fraud case and Florida classified documents case as a political witch hunt.
In fact, Trump tweeted the term “witch hunt” nearly 300 times during his presidency. It’s one of his favorite words, and Trump could very well use the term when he references the indictments he is currently dealing with.
To get nearly +200 odds for him to say it just once during a 90-minute debate feels like a great value for your debate picks.
Debate Prop Pick: Over 0.5 Times Donald Trump Says the Word “Witchhunt” (+193) at Bookmaker
List of BookMaker.eu Debate Prop Bets
Popular sportsbook BookMaker.eu has posted a variety of other prop bets on the debate, and will likely make others available by Debate Night. Here are some of the most interesting prop bets currently available for wagering.
| Debate Prop | Offered by BookMaker | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump call Joe Biden “Sleepy Joe”? | Yes +180 | No -231 | |
| Will the Candidates shake hands? | Yes +322 | No -450 | |
| Will Donald Trump call Joe Biden “Corrupt”? | Yes -141 | No +111 | |
| Will Donald Trump call Joe Biden “Incompetent”? | Yes +150 | No -189 | |
| Will Donald Trump interrupt Joe Biden’s closing statement? | Yes +1277 | No -2000 | |
| Will either Trump or Biden mispronounce a politican’s name? | Yes +158 | No -200 | |
| First Candidate to Drink from Water Bottle during Live Broadcast? | Trump -105 | Biden -125 |
Top Candidate Trending on Twitter/X
Even if Trump fails to produce a real viral moment in this debate with the muted mics, he is still by far the most polarizing figure in this debate.
Trump’s supporters love him and his haters really hate him. Meanwhile, Biden doesn’t generate feelings nearly as strong. He can win the debate and Trump would still be the main story.
While -210 odds don’t carry a ton of value, sometimes you need to take advantage of what should be a highly probable outcome. Trump will be trending highest on Twitter/X at the end of this debate.
Debate Prop Pick: Candidate Trending Highest on Twitter/X at End – Donald Trump (-210) at BetOnline
First Debate Topic
There are 8 topics listed for what the 1st debate topic will be on Thursday night, ranging from the economy (+150) and foreign policy (+275) to Hunter Biden (+1600) and cryptocurrency (+2500).
While the topic will come up, don’t expect them to lead off by talking about what’s happening in Ukraine and Palestine. The American people care most about inflation and the economy, and that is where the debate should start as it relates directly to people’s finances and paying for groceries.
Trump has attacked Biden for inflation, and Biden has also talked about “shrinkflation” done by corporations who are making items smaller while charging more money for them. It figures to be a dominant topic on the night, so it should rightfully be the 1st debate topic. We’ll go with the chalk here.
Debate Prop Pick: First Topic of Debate – Economy (+150) at BetOnline
First to Condemn Israel?
You know the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine will be a heated topic. It is something that has hurt Biden in the polls among young voters.
But with +200 odds for Trump to condemn Israel’s barrage of attacks since October, we see value in the underdog if the question is presented in the way we think it could be.
While we know that Biden has worked on a ceasefire plan for Israel, the more interesting reaction is to hear what Trump would do differently than Biden to fix the conflict. That’s why he should get the 1st response to the Israel question, and that should allow bettors a chance to cash their tickets, despite Trump’s overall support for Israel.
Trump already took a few shots at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in October. Trump reportedly holds a grudge against him for showing support to Biden’s win in 2020, so the odds reflect Trump may see this as a way to take a shot at Netanyahu in some way sufficiently enough to cash this prop.
Debate Prop Pick: First to Condemn Israel – Donald Trump (+200) at BetOnline
List of BetOnline Debate Prop Bets
BetOnline has also posted several prop bets for the debate and is expected to offer more by Debate Night.
| Debate Prop | Offered by BetOnline | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| To win CNN Debate | Donald Trump -165 | Joe Biden +125 | |
| First topic of Debate | Economy +110 | Foreign Policy +250 | |
| First to condemn Israel | Donald Trump +500 | Joe Biden -900 | |
| First slogan said | MAGA Republicans -140 | Save America +100 | |
| Putin total mentions | Over 4.5 Mentions -120 | Under 4.5 Mentions -120 | |
| To be said first by either candidate | Felon/Criminal -180 | Jail/Prison +140 | |
| First candidate to interrupt a moderator | Donald Trump -300 | Joe Biden +200 | |
| Candidate trending highest on Twitter/X at end | Donald Trump -400 | Joe Biden +250 | |
| First candidate to suggest other is ‘on drugs’ | Donald Trump -700 | Joe Biden +400 | |
| First to say ‘shut-up’ to other candidate | Joe Biden -150 | Donald Trump +110 | |
| How many times will Trump say ‘stolen’ or ‘rigged’ | Over 3.5 -120 | Under 3.5 -120 | |
| How many times will Trump say ‘fake news’ | Over 1.5 -120 | Under 1.5 -120 |
Trump Buzzwords
You can find a large list of Trump buzzwords where if he utters the exact phrase during the debate, you win the bet.
Some are major longshots, such as “Patrick Mahomes” (+2500) and “Kendrick Won” (+2500), but some are things he is very likely to say during this debate.
- “Make America Great Again” (-800) is basically a lock, but we have loftier goals for value picks in mind than that.
- “Crooked Joe Biden” (+100) is a favorite nickname that Trump uses for Biden, and in September 2023 he used it in the same sentence as “radical left thugs” (+400) when describing his opposition.
Hitting that as a parlay in one sentence would be fun, but that’s a pair of singles we like for Trump to say during this debate.
Debate Prop Pick: Trump Buzzwords – Crooked Joe Biden (+100) at Bovada
Debate Prop Pick: Trump Buzzwords – Radical Left Thugs (+400) at Bovada
Biden Buzzwords
Biden has his own large betting market for buzzwords that if he says exactly during the debate, you win your bet.
A favorite with plus odds is “Abortion rights” (+120). Biden could absolutely hammer the point home that it was Trump and his appointed Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, and it is the Republicans who are pushing for states to severely limit if not ban all abortion procedures.
Biden and the Democrats want to protect abortion rights, and that 2-word phrase should be uttered multiple times by Biden if he wants to make the point clear that this is one of the biggest differences between voting for him and voting for Trump.
Debate Prop Pick: Biden Buzzwords – Abortion Rights (+120) at Bovada
List of Bovada.lv Debate Prop Bets
The well-known sportsbook Bovada has already listed several prop bets for the debate and is expected to add more by Debate Night.
| Debate Prop | Offered by Bovada | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debate winner | Joe Biden -185 | Donald Trump +140 | |
| Times Trump says stolen/rigged | Over 9.5 +250 | Under 9.5 -360 | |
| Biden buzzwords | Abortion rights +120 | Election denier +300 | |
| Our democracy is at stake -300 | He’s lying -150 | ||
| Create millions of new jobs -200 | His good friend, Vladimir Putin +500 | ||
| Trump buzzwords | Believe me -4000 | Make America Great Again -800 | |
| Rebuild our cities -125 | A nation in decline -200 | ||
| Crooked Joe Biden +100 | Radical left thugs +400 |
And the Winner Is…
At least according to the polls. Since determining a winner is highly subjective, this wager will be graded based on any poll co-sanctioned by CNN. In the absence of such a poll, the answer will be determined by YouGov, Ipsos, or an aggregate of both. A lack of any of those three sources will result in voided bets.
In such a bipartisan market, especially one as polarizing as this, the best approach is to rely on the most objective tools. If we examine the recent line history for Biden and Trump’s odds, it’s hard to deny the former president’s lead over the last couple of months, even with his legal battles unfolding.
Closing In
While it’s true that Incumbent President Joe Biden has closed the gap over the last weeks, Trump has been the odds-on favorite according to linemakers. Recent polls have shown similar trends.
However, considering the event will be hosted by CNN and you can get Biden at even money, it might be worth the risk given the network’s traditional demographics.
Stay tuned as we’ll update this article when more props become available for either the first debate or the one on ABC in September.
Debate Prop Pick: Joe Biden to Win CNN Debate ML (+110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
