One of the most popular and heated NFL futures bets is the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award. We just saw a historic race in the 2024 season that shockingly went Josh Allen’s way despite Lamar Jackson winning All-Pro honors and the MVP from just about every other organization except the one that decides these bets: the Associated Press.
You also may be surprised to learn that Allen is the current favorite to win MVP in the 2025 NFL season according to the latest odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). Here are the other quarterbacks joining Allen to round out the top five in MVP odds:
- Josh Allen (+500)
- Lamar Jackson (+550)
- Joe Burrow (+850)
- Patrick Mahomes (+900)
- Jayden Daniels (+1200)
Repeating as MVP is difficult, but it has been done as recently as this decade when Aaron Rodgers did it in 2020-21. Before that, Peyton Manning did it in 2003-04 and 2008-09.
Can Allen repeat as MVP in 2025? There is already a solid argument for it that we’ll explore, but we’re also going to examine why he may not be the best pick at the top-rated sportsbooks this season.
The Case for Josh Allen’s Repeat MVP
In NFL history, 5 quarterbacks and 1 running back (Jim Brown) have repeated as MVP as awarded by the Associated Press (AP). So, you can argue it’s harder to repeat as MVP than it is to repeat as Super Bowl champs, since that’s been done 9 times.
But Allen has several things working in his favor that could lead to another MVP in 2025.
Allen Has Room for Improvement
One reason it’s so hard to repeat as MVP is that you’re usually asking for improvement or staying in the ballpark on a career season. However, you don’t always have to improve on what you did last year to win MVP again.
- Aaron Rodgers clearly had superior stats in 2020 (COVID year) than he did in 2021, and the Packers were a 13-win No. 1 seed in both seasons. However, Tom Brady floundered late in the season in 2021, and Rodgers’ hot streak to end the season was enough to give him his 4th MVP.
- Joe Montana had his best stats of his career in 1989, the most dominant 49ers team in history. They were still winning and a No. 1 seed in 1990, but his stats weren’t as good, and he still won a contested MVP race because he was Joe Cool and he was going for the three-peat that year in San Francisco.
- On the other hand, Peyton Manning had to step up to repeat as MVP both times. In 2004, he rewrote the record books when he threw 49 touchdowns, then in 2009, he led the Colts to a 14-0 start with a record-setting 7 comeback wins in the 4th quarter to win his 4th MVP.
The great news for Allen is he has plenty of room for improvement over what he did in 2024, which you can argue wasn’t a career year by any stretch for him:
- Allen passed for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns (both his fewest since 2019)
- Allen’s passing success rate (49.1%) was the fifth-highest of his career
- Allen didn’t lead a single 4th-quarter comeback win in 2024 and the Bills were just 2-3 against playoff teams
The Bills didn’t always need as much volume (yards) from Allen in 2024 as they did in 2020-23. He got credit for the team still producing points and winning at a high level after getting rid of top wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
That angle is gone in 2025, but it’s now possible that the players around Allen simply play better with him this season with more experience:
- Keon Coleman is no longer a rookie wide receiver and needs to have a bigger role.
- Dalton Kincaid is still a young tight end and will have a chance to bounce back from a rough 2nd season.
- The team added a decent receiver in Josh Palmer from the Chargers to go along with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel.
- The offensive line is still one of the best and the running backs, led by James Cook, should play very well again.
- The Bills still have the draft to add more pieces to Allen’s offense to make it even better for 2025, and don’t discount the defense possibly improving after adding Joey Bosa to the pass rush.
Allen Gets Marquee Games at Home
What’s become an important factor in MVP voting this decade is late-season games, especially ones in front of national audiences. While we won’t know the NFL schedule until May, we’ve long known who the opponents will be for each team in 2025.
In Buffalo’s case, the Bills get to host the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles, Bengals and Buccaneers. That’s a lot of potential for very important, high-profile games that could be part of a final MVP campaign boost for Allen if he outplays the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, etc. The Bills do not have a daunting road schedule by any means in 2025.
Again, we’ll find out in May when these games will be played, but Buffalo getting all of those tough opponents at home could be a huge edge in winning those games and helping the Bills finally clinch a No. 1 seed for the first time in the Allen era. A No. 1 seed is also a huge factor in winning MVP as they do that 75% of the time.
The Case Against Josh Allen’s Repeat MVP
Between the potential for playing better in a better offense and getting so many important games at home, Allen has a logical path to MVP in 2025 if his play can deliver.
However, there are also several good reasons to expect that he won’t win MVP again in 2025.
Voter Fatigue/Charity MVP
If you don’t believe voter fatigue is a real issue in MVP voting for sports, then you haven’t paid attention to the sports media in the last year.
We’re seeing it play out right now in the NBA where many people don’t want to give Nikola Jokic his 4th MVP in 5 years despite the fact that his numbers are historic and better than ever. They want to see Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win instead for leading another No. 1 seed. For that matter, Jokic likely didn’t win MVP two years ago because enough people wanted to see Joel Embiid get an opportunity.
If Jokic had never won MVP before, he’d likely run away with it this year, but we are seemingly in this era of making the MVP a lifetime achievement award or a charity MVP award.
We just saw it in the NFL with how Allen won his 1st MVP. Tony Romo, calling a Buffalo game for CBS late in the year, let the cat out of the bag when he said the tiebreaker between Allen and Lamar Jackson is that Lamar’s won it twice, including a weak case in 2023, and Josh has never won it before, so there’s the difference.
But that’s not how it should work. You were either the MVP that season or you weren’t. No one should get to say there has to be a limit on one player or they have to share and not hurt someone’s feelings for not having one yet.
All-Pro vs. MVP Contradiction
The sham of it all came out in the voting when 30 of the AP voters selected Jackson as the first-team All-Pro quarterback compared to 18 for Allen. That’s usually a perfect predictor of how MVP would turn out too, but those same 50 voters decided to award Allen with the MVP with a 27-23 split, one of the closest races ever.
That means several voters felt Jackson was the “best” quarterback in 2024 but that Allen was the most “valuable” player, which doesn’t even pass a simple logic test in my book. How is the best quarterback not the most valuable player? It’s the most important position. If you thought Allen was MVP, you should have voted for him as All-Pro as well.
Then, when it was revealed who voted Allen for MVP and who voted for Lamar, the Allen voters included most of the outspoken, hot-take artists who had a vote. The more analytical voters chose Jackson.
In summary, Allen basically won MVP out of charity because he’s never won one, and giving Jackson a third after gifting him a second in 2023 was a bridge too far for voters like Emmanuel Acho, Chris Simms, Jim Miller and Dan Orlovsky.
So, don’t discount how this vote will be used against Allen in 2025 as he should be held to a much higher standard now. He got his charity MVP. Now let’s see if he can actually have a season where most voters think he was the best quarterback too.
Turnover Regression for Buffalo/Allen
We highlighted above how Allen could have a better season in 2025 as he’s more comfortable with the pieces around him, but there is one area you can bet he won’t improve on.
In 2024, the Bills were unbelievable at limiting negative plays like turnovers and sacks. The turnovers were the bugaboo on Allen’s past resume, but he cleaned that up immensely in 2024. While he could still take few sacks in 2025 behind a reliable line, it’s unlikely these turnover numbers will hold up well:
- The 2024 Bills tied the 2019 Saints for the fewest turnovers (8) in a season in NFL history, and they did it in 17 games.
- The 2024 Bills finished with 8 giveaways in 20 games (playoffs included), a record low for any 20-game span in NFL history.
- The Bills have not lost the turnover battle (finished positive or neutral) in 22 straight games, the longest streak in NFL history.
- The 2024 Bills led the NFL with a +24 turnover margin, tied for the 13th-best mark in history and the seventh best since 1966.
- The 2024 Bills were +14 in lost fumble recoveries in the regular season, tied for the second best since 2000. They led the league in 2024 with 16 fumbles recovered and 2 fumbles lost.
- Including the playoffs, the Bills were an unfathomable +17 in fumbles.
- The 2024 Bills are the only offense since at least 1992 to have zero lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks as Allen had both of their lost fumbles.
Turnovers are one of the least reliable stats from season to season in the NFL because of their fluky nature. I highly doubt that the Bills learned in 2024 how to literally never lose fumbles outside of Allen doing it twice. Their skill players will lose fumbles in 2025, and with the way regression works, it could be more than you expect, and that’s to say nothing of Allen likely throwing a few more picks than he did last year.
Better Options Available
Just to recap so far, Allen has lost the narrative about losing Diggs and Davis at wide receiver, he’s got the charity MVP angle going against him, and he’s likely going to see turnover regression in 2025.
That’s a lot working against him repeating as MVP. As for the final part, there’s just the reality that other players may very well have better seasons and cases.
Joe Burrow (Bengals) might get the charity MVP push in 2025 that Allen just received. Even if he puts up lesser numbers in 2025 than he did in 2024, if the Bengals can make the playoffs, that might be enough for voters as a few were ready to give him the MVP last year on a 9-8 team that missed the tournament.
The Bengals also re-signed Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to the most expensive WR1 and WR2 deals in NFL history. Frankly, that should work against Burrow’s MVP case, but after what happened last year, you have to throw logic out the window with these MVP voters.
As for someone likely to make the playoffs no matter what, Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) is always a good choice for MVP. After that Super Bowl rout ended the dream of a three-peat, we could see a return to a more aggressive Mahomes in 2025, especially if he can get Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy together on the field in an offense that needs to start moving away from an aging Travis Kelce and so many short passes. Let your QB rip it again, and there probably will be a chip on his shoulder after the way that Super Bowl ended.
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) may not be a good bet this year after the fiasco last season with him winning All-Pro but the same voters giving Allen the MVP. It’s also going to be really hard for Lamar to improve on 41 touchdowns to 4 interceptions even if 75% of his picks were off his receiver’s hands or body. But Lamar fatigue is real, and people seemingly want to see him do more in the playoffs before giving him more regular-season hardware.
While C.J. Stroud (Texans) duped me last year into an MVP campaign that blew up early, there are similar reasons to like Jayden Daniels (Commanders) for MVP in 2025. He just had quite arguably the best rookie quarterback season ever, he’s an efficient dual-threat, he’s prolific, he’s clutch, and they gave him Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil so far on offense.
Overtaking the Eagles to win the NFC East – no one has repeated as division champs since the 2001-04 Eagles – would be a huge part of Daniels’ MVP case as long as he can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump.
But he sure looks and feels like the real deal, and the voters may be happy to find someone new to feature instead of getting into another toxic debate involving Allen, Lamar, and Mahomes.
