Joshua vs. Dubois First Look: Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

Event Information

• When: Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET
• Where: Wembley Arena, London, England
• Scheduled Bouts: 6
• Main Event: Anthony Joshua vs. Daniel Dubois
• Moneyline Probability: Joshua – 80% (-400) Dubois – 25% (+300)

Main Event Profiles

Anthony “AJ” Joshua

• Professional Record: 28-3-0 (25 KOs)
• Age: 34
• Born: Watford, England
• Height: 6’6″
• Reach: 82.5″
• Stance: Orthodox

In partnership with new coach Ben Davison, Anthony Joshua has enjoyed a remarkable two years since surrendering back-to-back decision losses to the current unified champ, Oleksandr Usyk. With four consecutive wins, including three knockouts inside seven rounds, the Watford-born face of British boxing will return to Wembley with a well-deserved reborn level of confidence.

Highlight Reel Knockouts

It would seem the gun-shy version of Joshua that allowed Usyk to walk through him no longer exists. Davison has made a clear impact in the gym, and after the brutal beating of Otto Wallin, AJ accepted a side quest against a former UFC champion, Francis Ngannou.

Both outings delivered highlight-reel knockouts, but the composed yet ruthless nature of which AJ dismantled Ngannou with three knockdowns inside six minutes reminded the division of why he’s one of the greats. Sure, Ngannou was inexperienced as a boxer, but AJ did what Tyson Fury couldn’t, and that’s a huge statement heading into his first championship bout since 2022.

Joshua Boxing Accomplishments

• Former Unified Heavyweight World Champion (WBA, IBF, WBO)
• Former IBO Heavyweight World Champion
• British and Commonwealth Heavyweight Champion
• 2012 Olympics Gold Medallist

Anthony Joshua Best Moneyline Odds: (-400) at Bovada

Daniel “Dynamite” Dubois

• Professional Record: 21-2-0 (20 KOs)
• Age: 27
• Born: London, England
• Height: 6’5″
• Reach: 78″
• Stance: Orthodox

We watched Daniel Dubois storm the heavyweight division in his early twenties, finishing every opponent before him. English heavyweight boxing was seemingly in good hands. With Fury and AJ fighting in the latter stages of their respective careers, “Dynamite” was a breath of fresh air and a sign of relief for UK boxing enthusiasts.

Unfortunately, reality hit when a 23-year-old Dubois was faced with Joe Joyce. Yes, he took a knee, and we can put some of the blame on a broken orbital bone, but after quitting once, to watch him similarly quit against Oleksandr Usyk, doubt crept in, and nobody expected him to be holding the IBF title by 2024.

Evolution

When Usyk’s unified titles were split, the IBF was up for grabs. After Filip Hrgovic watched Dubois’ two defeats at an elite level, he would have fancied himself as the next owner of said belt. Unfortunately for him, “Dynamite” had other plans, and his fists exploded in the ring as usual.

When he’s fighting the behemoths at heavyweight, it’s easy to forget Dubois is just 27. The experience he’s garnered thus far is the perfect tool for evolution, and Joshua must factor this in come Saturday should he want to dethrone the IBF titleholder.

Daniel Dubois Best Moneyline Odds: (+345) at Bovada

Joshua vs. Dubois Analysis & Betting Prediction

When two potent knockout artists square off, the consensus is that an early knockout is guaranteed. However, time and time again, we’ve watched power punchers face off and respect their opponents. This leads to tactical, chess-like warfare, which is precisely what I believe will happen this weekend.

Undoubtedly, we’ll see some heavy shots, but we shouldn’t discredit the technical aspect. That said, it’s hard not to favor AJ’s faster footwork, speedier offense, and all-around experience should a technical brawl ensue.

Since the tag team of Joshua and Davison formed, the former two-time unified champ has displayed a calmness in the ring like we’ve never seen. We watched him methodically break the will of Otto Wallin for four rounds until, in the fifth, the white flag was flown.

Joshua vs. Dubois Best Bet

The available odds at Bovada are fair, as a -400 price tag on Joshua seems moderate for boxing standards. He is the more technical of the two, and when the danger of power is respected on both sides, he’s undeniably the greater chess player.

I don’t want to disrespect Dubois; he’s consistently evolving and has proven that writing him off after the Joyce and Usyk battles didn’t work out for bettors. However, there are one, two, many holes in his game, specifically in his defensive attributes, and the well-polished Joshua is prime to break him down for a late KO/TKO stoppage.

From a betting standpoint, I like the Joshua knockout props between rounds 7-10, 6-9, or 7-12. However, the over is sitting at 7 ½ rounds, and that’s throwing too much shade on the durability of these men, especially when you consider there has just been one instance where a bout finished under seven and a half rounds from the combined records of both fighters.

Boxing Pick: Over 7.5 Rounds (+100) [1u returns 1u profit] at Bovada 

Over 7.5 Rounds (+100)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.