For many of us, the eagle flies on Friday. For Juan Soto, it was a Thursday last December when the eagle soared, performed some amazing aerobatic stunts, made a perfect landing and then hung around for an autograph session.
Soto’s record-breaking $765 million contract with the New York Mets comes 45 winters after Nolan Ryan became the first $1 million per season player in MLB history. Of course, with the price of eggs these days, some adjustments for inflation must be made.
A lot will be expected from Soto, just as a lot is expected from the Mets as one of the NL favorites in the MLB futures odds. The success of either could very well determine the success of both.
2025 National League Winner Odds
Soto 66 Hits Away From 1,000
As he winds down his first spring training with the Mets, Soto recently spoke to reporters about being relaxed with the contract is done, as well as how comfortable he was with his fourth club in as many seasons.
“Now that you know where you’re going to be for the next 15 years, it’s just a different feeling,” Soto told reporters. Maybe his agent should remind him there is an opt-out clause after 2029.
BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has several season props for bettors to take advantage of, beginning with an over/under on Soto’s batting average. The bar has been set at .285, which just so happens to be the outfielder’s lifetime average. That prop ties in nicely with the one for the number of base hits Soto will accrue, which is 155.5.
Soto exceeded both numbers a year ago, and he did that under the pressure of playing for the New York Yankees. There won’t be any less scrutiny from the media moving from the Bronx to Flushing Meadow.
New York’s New Top Three
All signs point to New York skipper Carlos Mendoza beginning the season with Francisco Lindor hitting leadoff, Soto in the second slot and Pete Alonso batting third.
Soto also mostly batted second for the Yankees, with Gleyber Torres often leading off and Aaron Judge hitting third. Lindor’s speed will be more of a distraction for pitchers than Torres was, though teams could afford to pitch around Soto a little more with Alonso behind him than Judge.
Last year was the first time since 2021 that Soto hit better than his career average, and the 166 hits marked a career high. Both are attainable this time, but I’m laying off the ‘over’ for hits and batting average.
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A Plate Crossing Machine in 2024
Another career mark was reached by Soto in 2024 when he led the American League with 128 runs scored. It was by far the most times he had crossed the plate in a single season, Soto’s previous best being 111 for the 2021 Washington Nationals.
Those 128 runs were a key reason why the Yankees made friends with ‘over’ bettors in 2024. New York finished 86-69-7 O/U/P against the MLB odds during the regular season. They were 7-6-1 O/U/P during the playoffs.
Of course, the guy batting behind him was a huge reason why Soto stepped on the dish 128 times. Judge was close to a Triple Crown, coming home third in the AL batting race while leading all of Major League Baseball in homers (58) and RBI (148).
Soto has averaged 113 runs per 162 games during the course of his career, and he has proven to be durable enough to top the 105.5 runs set by BetOnline this season. But after Alonso tailed off in both HR and RBI in ‘24, and with Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez set to miss the first 4-6 weeks of 2025, the safer pick is the ‘under’ for runs scored.
- Juan Soto Under Under 105.5 Runs Scored (-115) at BetOnline
Will Lindor Keep Soto From 100 RBI?
Soto finished with 109 RBI each of the last two seasons, which is just one short of his personal best with the Nationals in 2019.
BetOnline is asking bettors to choose high or low on 102.5 RBI for 2025. That figure is right on Soto’s career mark of 102 RBI per 162 games played.
Based just on that number, and the fact Soto has only played 162 games once in his career (2023), the ‘under’ would seem the correct pick. Yet another reason is Lindor has proven to be a clutch ribbie stick the last three seasons by driving in 107, 98 and 91.
Lindor hit No. 2 or No. 3 for the Mets the first couple of months last year before being moved to leadoff. A full season as the leadoff man will give Lindor fewer RBI opportunities, but he is still a danger to plate runners from the 1-hole.
- Juan Soto Under 102.2 RBI’s (-140) at BetOnline
Can Soto Repeat 40 HR Campaign?
His 41 dingers set another personal best for Soto a year ago. That beat the 35 he hit the previous season with the Padres, and this year’s mark is 33.5.
After playing ‘under’ on the runs and ribbies, you might expect me to go low on the homers at the top-rated sportsbooks. Instead, I think he’ll reach 40 again, and Soto will have a chance to get that started on a good note when the Mets open the season in Houston, where he knocked a pair in Washington’s four wins during the 2019 Fall Classic.
- Juan Soto Over 33.5 Homeruns (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
