Top NCAAF Pick
Kansas State Under 8½ Wins -180 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Key Facts
- Kansas State is coming off its third conference championship in the last 87 years.
- The Wildcats return their quarterback and entire offensive line.
- Kansas State has to fill holes at receiver, running back and in the secondary.
One Last Chance to Win the Big 12
For the first time in 10 years and just the third time since 1935, Kansas State enters the season as defending conference champions. The Wildcats won the Big 12 last season, finishing second in the conference with a 7-2 record, then upsetting unbeaten TCU in the conference championship game.
The two other times since the Great Depression that K-State has won the Big 12, the Wildcats followed up an 11-win season with down years, going a combined 12-12 in their attempts to repeat.
K State seems better positioned to make a run at the Big 12 again this season, returning eight starters on offense and five on defense to a team that went 10-4, 7-2 in the league and went to the Sugar Bowl.
The Offense
The most significant returnee for coach Chris Klieman is fourth-year quarterback Will Howard, who replaced an injured Adrian Martinez as starter midway through last season and never gave the job back. In just seven games, Howard threw for 1,633 yards and 15 touchdowns while giving up just four interceptions, and two of those came in the 45-20 Sugar Bowl loss to Alabama.
The next most significant piece to return is a quarterback’s best friend—the entire offensive line. K-State returns all five starters from a line that allowed the fourth fewest sacks in the Big 12, and the second-lowest yardage lost on sacks total. The Wildcats line also paved the way for the league’s second-best rushing attack. Guard Cooper Beebe may be one of the top offensive line prospects in the NFL Draft next year, and he’s got veteran talent all around him.
Kansas State lost its leading rusher, Deuce Vaughn, and leading receiver Malik Knowles, so the skill positions will have a new look. The transfer portal will get an assist in the makeover, with FSU running back Treshaun Ward, who was an honorable mention All-ACC last year, and Iowa receiver Keagan Johnson arriving to help fill holes.
Last year’s backup running back, DJ Giddens, is back and looking to improve on his 518 yards and six touchdowns. Slot receiver Phillip Brooks (45 catches, 587 yards, four touchdowns) will also be expected to step up. Tight end Ben Sinnott (31 catches, 447 yards, four touchdowns) is also a prime target for Howard.
The Defense
The secondary suffered the heaviest losses of any unit on the team, with only All-Big 12 second-team safety Kobe Savage returning to the starting lineup. He was fourth on the team in tackles and second in interceptions. The Wildcats added North Dakota State safety Marques Sigle, but depth is a concern, as is a group of promising but unproven cornerbacks.
The rest of the defensive front seven is in better shape. Linebacker returns the team’s top tackler in Austin Moore, as well as returning super senior Daniel Green and pass rusher Khalid Duke. The trio combined for 18 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and 3 interceptions.
The line loses sack leader Felix Anudike-Uzomah but adds Mississippi State interior lineman Jevon Banks.
The Schedule
The Wildcats don’t have Oklahoma on the schedule, but other than that, they didn’t catch many breaks from the makers of the Big 12 slate. They have to play road games at Texas (Week 10), Oklahoma State (Week 6) and Texas Tech (Week 7), three of the four teams, other than Oklahoma and Kansas State, to get first-place votes in the Big 12 preseason media poll. TCU, the other team picked first by media members, travels to Manhattan on Week 8. Even worse, those four games come in a five-week stretch, with a homecoming game against Houston in Week 9 sandwiched in.
The non-conference schedule is no cupcake tray either. After opening with Southeast Missouri (Week 1), the Wildcats host a tough Troy team (Week 2) and then travel to Missouri (Week 3) before opening Big 12 play against new league member UCF (Week 4).
Our Top Pick
Kansas State succeeds by limiting mistakes. With new players at key positions and a schedule that looks to be tougher than last season, mistakes could be harder to control in 2023. Experience at quarterback, linebacker and across the offensive line should keep the floor from going to low, but another 11 win season seems unlikely.
For our top college football pick, we’ve got the Wildcats losing one non-conference tilt and three over the brutal five-game stretch against the Big 12’s best for eight regular season wins at -180 betting odds.
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State Under 8½ Wins -180 at Bovada
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