Kansas State vs. Iowa State College Football Week 14 Free Picks

The Big 12 Is Alive

Who says Big 12 college football is dead? The SEC may have outspent everyone else in the first year of open NIL deals and such, but according to Ross Dellenger’s research, the other Power 4 conferences have caught up; the biggest spenders since September 30 are the Big Ten, followed by the Big 12, ACC and SEC.

While we keep this in mind for bowl season, let’s celebrate our escape from SEC hegemony by watching Kansas State (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS) and Iowa State (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) go at it. Saturday night’s matchup in Ames should be a good one, featuring two evenly matched teams and the Cyclones fittingly -3 at most online sportsbooks as we go to press.

We’re not touching that spread here at the ranch. If you’ve been betting on college football for any length of time, you’re already giving that -3 the side-eye and turning your gaze elsewhere.

As far as straight bets (spreads, moneylines and totals) go, our crack staff has the Over in mind for your Week 14 college football picks; Heritage Sports has a total of 51 on their NCAAF odds board, with their standard -108 deal on the juice.

Why Bet the Total?

Two reasons in particular: One, it’s not the point spread, and two, it’s going to be a chilly late November evening in Iowa.

As a very old-school rule of thumb, home-field advantage in football is worth three points. It’s actually worth 3.26 points this year according to Jeff Sagarin’s college football stats, but as they say, close enough for government work.

Put two relatively even teams on the same field where the home side is -3, the most common winning margin in football, and you don’t leave much betting value on either side of that spread.

Both Sagarin and BCF Toys have Kansas State ranked five spots higher than Iowa State in the bottom half of their Top 25s, while Jack Trice Stadium is one of college football’s tougher venues for opponents, ranked No. 38 by FiveTickDelay heading into the 2024 campaign. We’ll call it a wash.

What About the Weather?

Make sure to wear several layers if you’re going to be in Ames this Saturday: The long-range forecast at AccuWeather calls for temperatures in the mid-teens for this prime-time affair.

But it’s not epic football weather by any means. It’s going to get that cold because there won’t be much cloud cover at all Saturday night; there’s no rain in the forecast, humidity should be around 50% (the same as a comfortable indoor setting), and the winds should be below 10 mph – except for the occasional gusts near 25 mph.

Generally speaking, the only bad weather that really matters in football is wind and rain/snow. Otherwise, it has to get either really dang cold or really dang hot for scores to plummet. Recreational bettors tend to overlook this, so the sharps can often take advantage by pounding the Over instead. Sure enough, the Over has unanimous support on the early BMR consensus reports.

The Pick

We’re keeping our recommended bet size small for protection; K-State has the Over at 3-2 on the road this year, while the totals are an even 3-3 at Jack Trice Stadium. There also isn’t much of an offense-defense imbalance to exploit between these two Big 12 teams – but that does improve their chances of taking this close contest to overtime. Bet accordingly.

College Football Pick: Over 51 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Over 51 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.