Kentucky vs. Tennessee March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bet

While there is at least one SEC team involved in six of the eight matchups in this Sweet 16, the first game in the Midwest Region on Friday is the only all-SEC matchup with second-seeded Tennessee facing third-seeded Kentucky. And unlike the two regular-season meetings, we are betting on the Volunteers to prevail comfortably when it matters most.

Equipped for Double Revenge

Tennessee comes in at 29-7 and ranked fifth overall in Kenpom after finishing fourth in the SEC at 12-8. But what is interesting is that while the Volunteers have lost seven games all season, two of those losses have come to Kentucky including their only home loss all year in Knoxville.

Considering that Tennessee is ranked 10 spots higher than #15 Kentucky in Kenpom, and that we agree they are the better overall team here, that added motivation of double revenge makes us like them even more!

The Vols are good offensively ranking 17th in efficiency, but it is their outstanding defense that will be the bigger key to victory in this spot. They are third in the country in defensive efficiency and second in eFG% allowed, resulting in a minuscule 62.8 points per game allowed, which is 11th best in the land.

They are also third in 3-point defense allowing just a 28.3% success rate, so we do not expect the Wildcats to match their unsustainable 50% shooting beyond the arc in the two meetings this season, going an identical 12-for-24 in each game.

Size Has Not Helped

Kentucky enters at 24-11 after going 10-8 in the SEC, and they are the slightly better team in offensive efficiency here with an 11th ranking. However, they are not in the same league as Tennessee when it comes to defense, ranking 46th in efficiency and a very disturbing 145th in eFG% allowed.

Interestingly, the Wildcats are the 22nd tallest team in the country, but that height has not helped in areas where you would think that size would be beneficial. They have not generated second chances like you would expect, ranking 229th in offensive rebounding percentage. Moreover, on the defensive end, all that height has not helped on the interior with a 287th ranking in 2-point defense.

In the end, the two regular-season victories over Tennessee were almost entirely due to the unrealistic 3-point shooting, and we are willing to bet against the Wildcats shooting 50% beyond the arc for a third time.

The Pick

We think Tennessee is the better overall team, and we think the gap between these schools is bigger than the 10-spot difference in Kenpom. And since we do not expect Kentucky to get lucky from 3-point land for the third straight meeting, we are laying the points while looking for the Volunteers to extract their double revenge.

Predicted Score: Tennessee 80 – Kentucky 70

NCAAB Pick: Tennessee -4 (-115) at Bovada

Tennessee -4 (-115)

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