NFL Pick: 2023 Las Vegas Raiders Over 6½ Wins (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Las Vegas Raiders had the kind of season Sin City would be proud of. Imagine a team that was up big in several games and still found a way to go home a loser. That familiar gambling experience plagued the Raiders in 2022 as no team blew more 4th-quarter leads (6).
Josh McDaniels’ return to the head coaching ranks was filled with too many games with questionable game management. But there were some positives with the offense that the team could take into 2023, though it will be with a new quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo.
Playing in the stacked AFC West is still an issue, and the Raiders are projected to finish last with an over/under of merely 6.5 wins at the top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Are the Raiders a good candidate for positive regression, or is this team going to lose even more games this year?
The Changes That Matter
The Derek Carr era is over, but is Jimmy Garoppolo the right replacement? He’ll have some new weapons to work with. As for the defense, changing the status quo may prove difficult.
Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr?
It lasted 9 years and Derek Carr was never going to put a ring on it. The Raiders had to move on after not winning a playoff game in the Carr era. Jimmy Garoppolo has been to multiple NFC Championship Games, but he is one of the most polarizing quarterbacks in the NFL.
For his career, Garoppolo completes 67.6% of his passes (3rd in NFL history). His yards per pass attempt (8.3) is the highest of any quarterback born after The Great Depression. He has durability issues, but he is 44-19 as a starter and is 12-12 in game-winning drive opportunities (2nd only to Patrick Mahomes among active quarterbacks).
From this analyst’s standpoint, it is impossible for a quarterback to have the numbers Garoppolo has and to not be at least an adequate player who could win in the right situation.
Wrong Place, Wrong Time?
Maybe the Raiders are not the right situation due to the defense and tough division, but McDaniels’ offense should at least be easy for him to pick up having played for him in New England in 2014-16.
Garoppolo played in Kyle Shanahan’s system in San Francisco with incredible success using play-action and getting YAC from some of the best YAC receivers in the world like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.
He loses a lot of that by going to the Raiders, but again, this is an offense that produced a rushing champion last year, and hopefully, Josh Jacobs will end his holdout before Week 1. Davante Adams is also the best wide receiver Garoppolo will have ever played with, and no one saw Carr throwing 8 touchdowns of 30-plus yards to Adams last year. That was as many as Aaron Rodgers had with Adams in 8 years together in Green Bay (playoffs included).
Do not be surprised if Garoppolo has a better statistical season and even more impact than Carr had last year in McDaniels’ system. He just needs to stay healthy as durability is the trait where Carr destroys him.
New Receivers
After too many injuries, the Raiders cut ties with Darren Waller, who is now with the Giants. Austin Hooper is not an adequate replacement, but he is a veteran at least.
He can teach 2nd-round rookie Michael Mayer from Notre Dame, who was thought to be the best overall tight end in this draft by some experts. Dalton Kincaid, who went to Buffalo, was considered the best receiving tight end by most experts. This could be a good pick for the Raiders, but tight end is a hard position to excel at in Year 1.
Returning Weapons
Adams and Renfrow return at wide receiver, and they will welcome Jakobi Meyers from New England. Yes, he made that incredibly bad lateral last year, but hopefully, he never does it again in his career. He also has plenty of experience in McDaniels’ offense, and he is a solid secondary option to throw to.
We will see who makes the final roster, but the Raiders have a deep receiving corps with plenty of veterans like Deandre Carter, Phillip Dorsett, Keelan Cole, and Cam Sims. They cannot all make the roster as you know 3rd-round pick Tre Tucker should make the final 53-man roster.
The Defense Needs Takeaways
The defense may not be much better this year, especially after deciding to keep coordinator Patrick Graham. But you could say he will field a more talented starting 11 this season.
The Raiders drafted edge rusher Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech with the No. 7 pick. He was thought to be the 3rd-best pass rusher in this draft behind Jalen Carter and Will Anderson. Carter was available due to off-field issues, and that would have been a classic Raiders pick in the Al Davis era.
But the team opted against it, so Wilson will try to learn behind Crosby and Chandler Jones this year. Do not expect much from him in 2023 unless one of those starters gets hurt.
Missing Key
But if the Raiders are not going to make a significant jump in points and yards allowed, then they need to get more takeaways at least after a league-low 13 turnovers in 2022. They only had 6 interceptions on pass defense.
The Raiders added corner Marcus Peters, who has been a ball magnet with 32 interceptions since 2015. But 2022 was his first season with just 1 interception as he was coming off a missed 2021 season with a torn ACL. He should be closer to 100% this season.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The Raiders do not scream playoff team in 2023, but maybe the feeling would be different if they played in the AFC South instead of the AFC West, a division owned by the Chiefs.
However, when a 6-11 team blows 6 4th-quarter leads and makes arguably an improvement at quarterback, that sounds like a great case for positive regression and a better record the next year.
Can we spot 7 wins on this schedule?
- The Raiders may be the worst team in the division now that Sean Payton is coaching Denver, but they are good enough to get at least a split with the Broncos and Chargers.
- This is Vegas now instead of Oakland, but the Pittsburgh Steelers have had a hell of a time making that travel out west to play this team, so that could be an early victory in Week 3.
- McDaniels is 2-0 as a head coach vs. Bill Belichick, and that rematch with the New England Patriots is back in Vegas, the scene of the lateral last year, in Week 6.
- The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions are road games against the NFC North in Weeks 7-8, but the Raiders will have a shot to get at least one. They also host the Green Bay Packers (Jordan Love) in Week 5 on a Monday night.
- Talk about regression: the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings loaded up on comeback wins last year and both will travel to Vegas this year. Maybe the Raiders win both games this time instead of blowing leads.
- Revenge for losing to Jeff Saturday? The Raiders are in Indianapolis in Week 17.
A 7-10 season is nothing to be proud of, but it looks more than doable for the Raiders this year. If things go as sour as they did for McDaniels in his 2nd season as Denver’s coach in 2010, then the Raiders will have cause to fire him before January.
But there is enough talent here to get the over 6.5 wins for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Las Vegas Raiders Over 6½ Wins (+110) at BetOnline
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On the Last Season of “The Raiders”: Choose Your Adventure, Blow a Lead
The best way to sum up the 2022 Las Vegas Raiders’ season in a single game would be the Week 14 loss to the Rams. Even though the Raiders were up 16-3 in the 4th quarter and facing a quarterback (Baker Mayfield) who just signed with the Rams 48 hours ago, they still found a way to blow the game.
Mayfield had practically the only clutch moment of his career, leading a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final 1:45 to win the game 17-16. This is how your team ends up with as many wins (6) as blown 4th-quarter leads (6).
Creative Ways
No team found more creative ways to lose games in 2022 than the Raiders. It only took Las Vegas 8 games last year to blow 3 leads of 17-plus points, which tied a single-season record. The other teams to do that fired their coaches, but McDaniels is going to get another shot in 2023.
Why? The offense was at least functional, ranking 12th in yards and points. Josh Jacobs won his first rushing title with 1,653 yards. Davante Adams was everything the Raiders hoped for in the trade with Green Bay. He led the NFL with 14 touchdown catches and had 100 catches for 1,516 yards.
Not everyone warmed up to McDaniels’ system. Derek Carr did not have one of his best seasons. With 2 games left, McDaniels benched the 9-year veteran for Jarrett Stidham, effectively ending the Carr tenure in Las Vegas.
Surprising Struggles
It was very surprising to see Carr struggle with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. At least Waller can cite injuries (again) for his lack of production, and that is probably why he is no longer with the team.
But Renfrow should have been a perfect fit to play the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman role in McDaniels’ offense from New England. Instead, Renfrow averaged just 6.6 yards per target and lost a fumble that was returned for a game-losing touchdown in Arizona in Week 2.
The defense that was supposed to be improved also struggled. Maxx Crosby was great with 12.5 sacks but he did not get the help he expected. Chandler Jones finished with 4.5 sacks, which is well below what he is capable of. No one else on the Raiders had more than 2.0 sacks last year.
Only Highlight
The only real highlight for Jones and the defense was the fluke win against the Patriots. In a tied game, the Patriots made an ill-advised lateral at midfield, and the ball went right to Jones, who returned it for a shocking game-winning touchdown in a 30-24 win. It was the Raiders’ only win in the last 5 games.
See, at least not every close game went against the Raiders last year. However, they did sign the player (Jakobi Meyers) who made that absurd lateral to lose the game for the Patriots.
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