NFL Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The 2023 NFC Championship Game may not be the matchup we all expected, but Brock Purdy and Jared Goff are half of the 4 quarterbacks who threw at least 30 touchdown passes this season.
These teams can score a lot of points and the over/under is 51 points.
We could be in store for a good offensive duel. We went over the top-rated online sportsbooks to find our favorite NFL odds for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
While the Lions are going to need a solid effort from the running game, this matchup is still favorable to requiring Jared Goff to throw a high number of passes to keep up with the 49ers.
Goff has only gone over 35.5 attempts in 6-of-19 games this season, but he also had 4 games with exactly 35 attempts, so he is usually right on the verge of this number. There are elements to this matchup that should favor the over:
- The 49ers should be able to hit big plays against Detroit’s defense, meaning fewer snaps and long drives, allowing for more time and snaps for the Detroit offense to catch up.
- Detroit’s running game may not be dominant against a San Francisco defense that ranked No. 1 in fewest rushes faced and No. 3 in rushing yards allowed, so Detroit could have to throw more.
- If the 49ers score a lot, the Lions will have to throw a lot to try coming back like in 2021 when Goff threw 57 passes in a 41-33 loss to the 49ers in his 1st game with the Lions.
- Goff attempted 53 passes in Baltimore (38-6 loss) and 44 losses against Detroit (29-22 loss) this year.
Goff also threw 43 passes last week against Tampa Bay in a game where the Lions never trailed.
The Pick
Goff against a top defense just fundamentally feels like a game where he will be inefficient, but hopefully efficient enough to complete passes and extend drives to get him over 35.5 attempts.
The worst-case scenario is a blowout where he repeatedly goes three-and-out or turns the ball over, but the Lions have been too good on offense to just kill over like that in this game.
NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-125) at Bovada
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
The Lions are allowing passing yards at a historic rate. Here is what the last 5 quarterbacks have done against Detroit, including this postseason:
- Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers): 349 yards, 3 TD
- Matthew Stafford (Rams): 367 yards, 2 TD
- Nick Mullens (Vikings): 396 yards, 2 TD
- Dak Prescott (Cowboys): 345 yards, 2 TD
- Nick Mullens (Vikings): 411 yards, 2 TD
That is 5 straight quarterbacks passing for 345 yards, a record against a defense in NFL history.
The Lions almost went 5-0 in these games had it not been for the controversial finish in Dallas, but the point is they are getting shredded in the secondary, and it’s not like this wasn’t an issue earlier in the season too.
There is a reason the Lions rank 23rd in scoring defense while the other teams playing this weekend are the top 3 scoring defenses.
This secondary has been picked apart, and that should continue this week even if Deebo Samuel (shoulder) doesn’t play for the 49ers. They still have Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Chrisitan McCaffrey, and Jajuan Jennings. They also have Kyle Shanahan scheming open wide-open receivers on play-action looks down the field.
The Pick
Purdy was not at his sharpest last week against Green Bay, but he did throw for 252 yards in the rain after the surprise injury to Samuel on the opening drive.
Purdy has passed for at least 252 yards in every home game this year. In all, he has 7 games with over 276.5 passing yards.
We’ll count on this Detroit trend to continue and for Purdy to hit big plays in this game that help him get near 300 yards.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 276.5 Passing Yards (-105) at Bovada
Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)
It might sound crazy to take the under on the best running back in the league right now, but Christian McCaffrey is facing a top-run defense in this game.
The Lions rank No. 2 in rushing yards allowed and No. 3 in yards per carry. They have only allowed 5-of-19 teams to rush for 100 yards this year.
Even better, no one has rushed for 70 yards against Detroit this year except for Chicago quarterback Justin Fields, who had 104 yards in Week 11. He had 58 yards in the rematch. Needless to say, Fields and McCaffrey play the game quite differently. Ty Chandler of the Vikings had 69 yards, the nicest performance any back’s had against the Lions this year. Four other backs broke 60 yards.
However, no one has been able to get to 70 yards, let alone 87.5 this year.
McCaffrey was held under 87.5 yards in his last 2 playoff games in the 2022 postseason. Last week, he had 17 carries for 98 yards against the Packers, a bottom-tier run defense. That was made possible by his great 39-yard touchdown run. According to Next Gen Stats, McCaffrey gained 34 yards over expected on that run and had a 0.2% chance of scoring a touchdown on that play.
The Pick
McCaffrey is awesome, but our game script calls for big pass plays by Purdy and the receivers. A respectable day for McCaffrey, but not a dominant one against this great Detroit run defense.
We’ll take his under.
NFL Pick: Christian McCaffrey Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
It still hurts to use a No. 12 pick in the draft on a running back.
However, the Lions are backing up their choice by letting Jahmyr Gibbs shine in this offense. He scored the game-winning touchdown run last week and had 74 yards on 9 carries.
Gibbs has also been useful as a receiver this year. He’s caught all 8 of his targets this postseason for 83 yards, picking up 40 yards against the Rams and 43 yards against the Buccaneers. Consistent.
Gibbs has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in 7-of-17 games this season, but we are thinking about the matchup here.
If the Lions are in fact playing from behind and trying to score quickly and often, then some simple checkdowns and screens for Gibbs could be very effective in this matchup.
The 49ers allowed 90 catches to running backs this regular season – only 4 defenses allowed more. The 49ers also allowed 625 receiving yards to running backs, the 8th-highest total in the league.
The Pick
The last time these teams played in 2021, Goff completed 8 passes for 56 yards to Jamaal Williams and he completed 8 passes for 65 yards to D’Andre Swift, so his running backs were heavily involved in that rally attempt.
We cannot expect a repeat of numbers like that this week, but getting some easy completions out to Gibbs, who has become one of Detroit’s best weapons, is a smart idea and the Lions should definitely do that as they have all postseason.
NFL Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
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