Lions vs. Texans Sunday Night Football Pick: Can C.J. Stroud Keep Up?
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Scott Kacsmar
- November 6, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Lions -3.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL was hoping to have a stellar Sunday night matchup between the Detroit Lions (7-1) and Houston Texans (6-3). It still could be, but the Texans are going to have a tougher time without the help of their best receivers to keep pace with this scoring juggernaut from Detroit.
We know Stefon Diggs is out for the season with a torn ACL, but it’s unclear if No. 1 wideout Nico Collins is ready to make his return from injury in this game or not. Early reports in the week do not sound optimistic.
The Lions are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 48.5 points at top-rated sportsbooks. That spread has already moved up a half point towards the Lions this week, so let’s see what the numbers say about Houston’s chances of staying competitive.
Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 10, 2024 – 08:20 PM EDT at NRG Stadium
Detroit Is Rolling
The Lions haven’t lost since Week 2, but their offense has just taken things to a whole new level since the Seattle win in Week 4. In the last 5 games, Jared Goff is completing 83.81% of his passes, the highest in any 5-game stretch in NFL history. He also has 11 touchdowns and no interceptions during this span as he has put himself in the MVP category.
But a reason to not truly back Goff for MVP is that this offense, coordinated by Ben Johnson, is just so stacked and dialing it up with great plays right now. The offensive line has been great, the running back duo is playing at a high level, and Goff is managing things beautifully.
Maybe we should give some props to the defense as well ever since star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson went down with a broken leg against the Cowboys. They forced 4 turnovers by the Titans in a 52-14 win, then they had a huge pick-6 against Jordan Love before halftime in Green Bay in Sunday’s 24-14 win.
Roaring High
The Lions lead the NFL in scoring at 32.3 points per game, and they have already had 3 road games this season where they did not allow more than 14 points. We also know Detroit protects the ball well with just 5 giveaways on offense as Goff hasn’t had those turnover problems yet this year.
This is a very tough team to beat right now as the Lions have the best Super Bowl odds in the NFC at the moment.
Where Does Houston Have an Edge?
Frankly, Houston has not played as well as you’d expect from a 6-3 team. The Texans have the close wins, but they have only scored 1 more point than they’ve allowed this season. That’s what happens when you mix so many close wins with a 34-7 loss to the Vikings. They’ve also lost 24-22 to the Packers, and while that was on the road on a last-second field goal, that’s also another loss to this stacked NFC North division that they’re now going to face the best team from.
C.J. Stroud was an MVP candidate this year, but it’s hard to take that seriously without his best receivers. Joe Mixon has had some strong games on the ground, including last week in the loss to the Jets, but they are really lost without Diggs and Collins. It doesn’t sound good that Stroud will get Collins back in time for Sunday night, so there goes the play-action deep shots and quick strikes that could make this offense score quickly if it has to get into a shootout with the Lions.
Incredibly, Stroud was only able to complete passes to 3 different receivers against the Jets, and the only receivers who were able to catch a pass that gained more than 8 yards were Tank Dell and Robert Woods. You just never see that kind of game from offenses in the NFL, so it was really disappointing for Stroud to not find his tight ends or running backs or other wideouts in that game.
Turning the Tide
The Texans have no hope of winning a shootout without Collins. Their best hope is to win the turnover battle, and hope that their pass rush can get to Goff quickly and force some mistakes.
This is an interesting matchup on that front as Goff has this stellar completion percentage that leads the league and is over 83% the last month. However, the Texans lead the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 54.9% of their passes. That’s a solid 20 percentage points below where Goff is for the season, so maybe they can force some incompletions and get Goff to cool down a bit.
But it has to be won by the pass rush and controlling the clock with Mixon on the ground and good 3rd-down conversions. The problem there is the Texans are just not impressive in situational football. The offense is 16th on 3rd down and 15th in the red zone. On defense, they are 30th in the red zone, so look out for touchdowns from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in this one.
Lions vs. Texans (-3.5): Who Covers the Spread?
The Texans under Stroud and DeMeco Ryans have been very good in close games, but it’s possible they can’t get this game to that point if Detroit goes on a scoring spree. The Houston defense, despite the pass-rush success, gives up a lot of plays to wide receivers as we saw with the Jets (Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson) last week. That could mean a big game for Amon-Ra St. Brown.
However, we also know the Lions are great at covering the spread under Dan Campbell, who has been their coach since 2021. In that time, the Lions cover 71% (44-18) of the time, the only team above 70% in the NFL. But since 2023, the Lions are 8-1 ATS as a road favorite, a fantastic record as well.
You might take a shot at Stroud with the points in a close game with Collins at his disposal, but that just doesn’t look to be the case this week. That’s why we’re backing the Lions to cover on the road for your NFL picks to end Sunday’s action.
NFL Pick: Lions -3.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
