We are getting down to the nitty-gritty for those trying to make the field of the Kentucky Derby. This week we have two very important races, the Louisiana Derby 2024 and the Jeff Ruby Steaks 2024 (intentional play on words), with massive qualifying point totals (100-50-25-15-10), for those finishing 1st to 5th place.
Because we have two races to cover, we’ll stick with the horses that are expected to contend and a couple of possible long shots, rather than discussing each horse in each race. That doesn’t mean a long shot won’t come out of nowhere, since it is horse racing.
Let’s go to work!
Top Pick: To Win Louisiana Derby – #4 Agate Road
Louisiana Derby 2024
Saturday, March 23, 2024 – Post Time 06:42 PM ET at Fair Grounds Race Course
- Race: 12
- Grade: 2
- Distance: 1 3/16-mile
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $1,000,000
Here’s the full lineup for the Louisiana Derby, showing each horse’s post position, jockey, trainer and their odds to win at top-rated sportsbooks such as BetOnline (check out our BetOnline Review).
Louisiana Derby Contenders
The Louisiana Derby will have a 12-horse field for this one million purse that is a Grade 2 race. Track Phantom is the morning line favorite at 3-1 odds, but there are six other horses with single-digit odds that could mean a race to the wire.
With no great studs thus far for the Run for the Roses, Track Phantom can make his case this Saturday. TP has shown strong consistent form in winning three of four races and its only recent setback was to highly regarded Sierra Leone in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 17, at this same track. Track Phantom will try to make it three of four at Fair Grounds, having to start in the last #12 position.
The next closest contender is Catching Freedom (4-1). He was 3rd at the Risen Star where he was boxed in before finding a late running lane to finish behind Track Phantom. With a jockey change to veteran Flavien Prat, trainer Brian Cox will ask his rider to place Catching Freedom near the front of the pack to avoid congestion, giving him a better shot to win. Prat won this race two years ago.
Other Horses In the Mix
The next horse in the mix is Common Defense (6-1), who has one victory and two 2nds in four starts. Speed rating suggests he should be a contender, but a win candidate seems more than this horse has shown. CD should finish in the money, however.
Next are four horses at current 8-1 odds. Of the group, two don’t seem to measure up. Hall of Fame is the least likely to make an impression. Hall of Fame has the proper connections to support his odds and has a first and a second in three starts. Nevertheless, his $1.4 million yearling purchase price was supposed to deliver better results. Not sure you can trust this inexperienced horse in this field. Tuscan Gold is in the same realm, lacking in experience and even worse, appearing to lack speed for such a race.
Intriguing Options
Next up is Honor Marie who needs to finish 1st or 2nd to possibly make the Kentucky Derby field. Honor Marie showed more as a two-year-old than the current age of three. HM is known as a deep closer and new rider Ben Curtis has to do a better job of positioning for a late charge and understanding when to call for it. With two wins in four starts, it is about putting it all together for his horse.
With Todd Pletcher as trainer and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, Agate Road is a fascinating longer shot. His credentials as one of the most talented 3-year-olds in training and AG has won on dirt and turf (this Derby is on dirt), giving his trainer and jockey options. Pletcher has five wins in the Louisiana Derby, most all-time among trainers and he has a horse that can win.
Louisiana Derby 2024 Best Bets
- Win – #4 Agate Road
- Place - #12 Track Phantom
- Show - #5 Catching Freedom
Jeff Ruby Steaks 2024
Saturday, March 23, 2024 – Post Time 06:25 PM ET at Turfway Park
- Race: 12
- Grade: 3
- Distance: 1 1/8-mile
- Conditions: Synthetic
- Purse: $700,000
Check out the field for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, showing each horse's post position, jockey, trainer and their odds to win at top-rated sportsbooks such as Bovada (check out our Bovada Review).
Jeff Ruby Steaks Contenders
The other big race of the day takes place at Turfway Park, with a purse of $700,000 for this Grade 3 race with a dozen of horses. Of this contingent, four, possibly five have the right stuff to hit the winners' circle, with a fringe player.
Endlessly (5-2 odds) has the look of a champion. He’s been brilliant in four of his five career starts with victories and is the one to beat.
Next in line according to the odds are Northern Flame (5-1) and Seize the Grey (6-1). Northern Flame was a good 3rd at the Rebel (G2 race) and his speed rating has improved in each of his past three outings. Seize the Grey’s March workouts show his trending in an upward direction, though a bit of a concern is no prior stakes races.
Dark Horses
At 8-1 odds, we have Lucky Jeremy and Woodcourt. Lucky Jeremy is a stakes race winner and has delivered the second-most consistent speed race after race. He's only surpassed by the favorite Endlessly. Meanwhile, Woodcourt had not exhibited a great deal of speed until its last start and thoughts are mixed if this is an uptick or an outlier performance.
Jeff Ruby Steaks 2024 Best Bets
- Win – #10 Endlessly
- Place - #3 Luck Jeremy
- Show - #6 Northern Flame
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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