NCAAF Pick: LSU Over 9½ Wins (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The LSU Tigers won 10 games last year, including a win over Alabama. However, the Tigers lost a few games that should’ve been won.
Can the Tigers be more consistent this 2023? The top offshore sportsbooks are setting the over/under at 9.5 victories for the season.
Key Facts
- Brian Kelly is 179-76 all-time as a head coach in College Football.
- LSU is ranked 5th in the Preseason AP-Coaches Poll to begin the season.
- Jayden Daniels will improve his passing in the final season as quarterback for LSU.
Is LSU Ready to Compete for a National Championship Again?
The LSU Tigers shocked the world last year. They won 10 games in Brian Kelly’s first season as head coach and got a chance to play in the SEC Championship game against Georgia.
Kelly consistently gets 10+ wins out of his teams, dating back to his time at Notre Dame, but there’s still so much room for improvement with LSU.
LSU got their signature win against Alabama at home, leading to their SEC matchup against Georgia for the Championship. LSU had some bad losses mixed into their season, which prevented them from earning a College Football Playoff bid.
But in Year 2 under Kelly, if the Tigers can clean up some of their mistakes and become more consistent, the Tigers will be a legitimate contender for a College Football Playoff bid this time.
Jayden Daniels’ Team
Jayden Daniels threw for 2,900 yards and added 17 touchdowns. He also threw just three interceptions last season. On top of that, Daniels led the team with 885 rushing yards and added 11 more scores on the ground.
Daniels transferred out of Arizona State to play for the Tigers. He’s been everything LSU hoped he’d be and then some. Daniels has turned into a true leader and continues to develop.
Earlier last season, he wouldn’t throw the ball in tight windows. He was afraid of turning the ball over, but after much talk with the coaching staff and plenty of practice, Daniels became more comfortable throwing the ball to his receivers. That’s why many think that the LSU offense will improve this year.
LSU has four of five starters back on the offensive line. They also have plenty of talented running backs and wide receivers that can make names for themselves this year.
Josh Williams will likely be the lead back, but the addition of Logan Diggs from Notre Dame should help this group rotate through their backs.
The Pass Rush Needs to Be Better
The LSU Tigers have always been known for their defense, but this team allowed 31 or more points in five of their last seven games in the SEC. Regardless, Daniels and the LSU defense found ways to win, but if the defense can step up and make more plays, the Tigers will be much better off.
Maason Smith is back after his torn ACL in last year’s first game of the season. He was expected to make significant strides as the defensive tackle for the Tigers and should be a vocal point of the defense this year.
They’ll also include Harold Perkins, who had one of America’s most outstanding freshman seasons. Perkins had 73 tackles and 8.5 sacks with 14 quarterback hurries and 14 tackles for a loss and didn’t even start the season as a critical piece for LSU.
The Tigers added Omar Speights to work alongside Perkins. He’s from Oregon State and should be an intriguing piece of the puzzle for LSU. Speights made 300 tackles and had 25 for a loss throughout college with Oregon State.
Meanwhile, LSU lost a lot of depth in the secondary, but they brought in Denver Harris from Texas A&M and added Zy Alexander from Southeastern Louisiana. LSU’s a top-tier university. They can go out and find transfers whenever they feel like they’re missing something with their roster. Therefore, you can always be reassured about losing players to the NFL. That’s the LSU way.
Schedule
The LSU Tigers are listed at -125 to win Over 9.5 games. The Under is at +105.
They’ll begin the season against Florida State at a neutral site in Florida. LSU lost to FSU last season but are the favorites to win this game. Florida State is currently a top ten pre-ranking team, with LSU sitting at 5 in the Coaches Poll. This should be the biggest game of the Week 1 season. I’ve got LSU winning this one. They’ll also defeat Grambling State before starting SEC play (not available yet at our NCAAF odds).
At 2-0, LSU will get Mississippi State (Week 3) on the road and Arkansas (Week 4) at home. The Tigers will be favorites in both games and should also win both. At 4-0, they’ll take on Ole Miss (Week 5) on the road, which could be tricky, but LSU should still earn a win in that game.
They’d be 5-0 with a road game against Missouri (Week 6). I’d have LSU winning that game and a home bout against Auburn. The Tigers would be 7-0 at this point of the season.
After the Tigers play Auburn, they’ll have a fun matchup against Army (Week 8), which should be another more straightforward win for LSU. At 8-0, they’ll play Alabama (Week 10) on the road. Despite earning a win against Alabama last year at home, it’s hard to bet against Alabama in this one.
At 8-1, the Tigers will face Florida (Week 11), Georgia State (Week 12), and Texas A&M (Week 13) at home to finish the season. The Tigers will be favorites in all three games and should earn 11 wind on the season.
The Pick
For your NCAAF picks, take the Over here.
NCAAF Pick: LSU Over 9½ Wins (-125) at BetOnline
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