It is called March Madness for a reason. Despite what often looks and even feels true, that is not the outcome. Here are a variety of betting tips to consider and follow before you head to the top-rated online sportsbooks.
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Filling Out an NCAA Men’s Basketball Bracket
The best way to create a bracket is to pick the four clubs you expect to make the Final Four. To do this you need conviction and knowledge of what you are doing that four teams can win their first four contests. Once you establish this, that is your foundation and work your way backwards (Elite 8, Sweet 16, 2nd Round, 1st Round and First Four). That doesn’t mean you cannot change your mind if you missed something.
This is a safeguard of checks and balances that should allow you to make better choices. Once you complete that method, go ahead and finish the two teams to play for the title and the eventual winner. Filling out more than one bracket is mostly an exercise in futility.
Understanding Seeds and Point Spreads
While some will complain about this or that team should have been seeded higher or lower, once the brackets are set, you can only look forward.
A common question is why do #12 seeds upset or at least cover the spreads in the opening round? Most 12 seeds are often teams that won their conference (or finished 2nd) and won their conference tournament, or are on a team that is on a late-season upswing. On the other hand, a #5 seed was often regarded as a #3 or #4 seed just weeks earlier and fell to that spot. This is a simple case of positive vs negative momentum.
Another to watch for is in Round 2, where the #2 seed typically plays better against a #6 seed than a #10 seed who beat a #7 seed. Players are human, they understand a #6 seed is more of a threat in preventing them from reaching the Sweet 16. When it comes to a #10, they might not have the same purpose and if the underdog #10 seed is a good three-point shooting team, watch out!
Back Top Road Teams and Those Playing Clubs Playing Closer to Home
If a squad has a strong home-court profile but has a history of not performing on the road, that becomes problematic. Your early research should tell you what teams have gotten the job done all season or in conference battles away from home, and those teams deserve a deeper look, especially as underdogs.
At the same time, watch for teams that have to travel shorter distances to any neutral location. That can turn into an edge for them because this could turn into a home-court edge by fan support. This doesn’t guarantee winning bets in college basketball, though it is often helpful.
Use Moneylines to Your Advantage
Most bettors prefer to follow the spreads for their wagering and there is nothing wrong in doing this. However, moneylines can offer flexibility.
If you have an underdog that you are certain can win the game outright, as say a three to five-point pooch, consider this. Assuming you normally bet $100 a game, put $50 taking the points, and the other $50 on the money line, where your payout is larger. If you are incorrect on both bets, you would have dropped $100 anyway. In case you hit both, you have a bigger payout, or if you nail the spread but not the money line, at least you’ve broken even.
If you are skittish about a short favorite giving up points, consider taking them on the ML. Yes, it can cost you a little more if they lose outright, nonetheless, if they win but come up short against the number, you will cash a winning ticket.
Don’t Forget About the Smaller Postseason Tourneys
Besides the Field of 68 Men’s NCAA Tournament, the NIT and CBI also offer basketball betting opportunities. If you pay attention to these, there are under-the-radar chances of generating more profit based on matchups and teams that get hot that can further build that bankroll. You should be selective and seek weak numbers that are exploitable.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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