March Madness Final Four 2025: Florida vs. Auburn Top Picks

In the first game of the Final Four on Saturday, Florida has consistently been one of the two or three best teams in the country all season, while Auburn hit a drought late in the year. We are backing the Gators as short favorites while also expecting a bit of a lower-scoring game than the total suggests.

Gators Won at Auburn

Looking at the overall Kenpom components, these teams look like mirror images of each other in every area except one (more on that later).

Florida comes in at 34-4 and ranked third overall in Kenpom while ranking Top 10 nationally in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. They are in fact second offensively and 10th defensively. And if you like consistency, consider that the Gators have gone 16-1 straight up since early February, and they have been one of the best ATS teams in the country, currently sitting at 27-11, 71.1% against the number.

This is a team without a single weakness that is ranked 31st in eFG% offensively and an amazing fifth in eFG% allowed on defense. And the area where they can gain the most separation here is on the offensive glass, where they are fifth in the land in offensive rebounding percentage at an impressive 38.9% (national average 29.8%).

Perhaps most important of all is what happened when Florida went into Auburn during the regular season to take on the team ranked #1 in the country at the time at 21-1 and 9-0 in the SEC. The Gators ended all that by basically dominating the Tigers in hostile territory much more than the 9-point final margin would indicate.

Florida built a 21-point lead in the second half of that contest, and the closest Auburn came afterward was within eight points with under one minute left, the outcome basically decided.

Rebounding to be Tigers’ Demise

Now, as mentioned, these teams seem very close when looking at the overall numbers. Auburn enters at 32-5 and ranks fourth overall on Kenpom. Moreover, they, too, grade out excellently on both ends of the court. On offense, they are third in the nation in efficiency and 34th in eFG%, while they are also eighth in defensive efficiency and seventh in eFG% allowed.

However, they have not been nearly as consistent as Florida, and they hit a slump shortly after the regular season home loss to the Gators. The Tigers lost their last two regular season games and, after a narrow 5-point win over Mississippi in the first round of the SEC Tournament, they were knocked out in the second round by Tennessee.

They were even unimpressive in the first two rounds of this NCAA Tournament before starting to resemble their early-season selves again in the last two rounds against Michigan and Michigan State. Florida is better than both of those teams, though, significantly so defensively.

And remember when we alluded to one area where these teams are far apart? Well, that would be rebounding. We already mentioned that Florida is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and we do not expect Alabama to keep the Gators off the offensive glass that much while ranking a disturbing 161st in defensive rebounding percentage.

Best Bet Side

Florida could have won the regular season meeting between these two teams by a much wider margin if garbage time had not started early with a 21-point lead, and that was at Auburn. Add in being more consistent and a huge advantage on the offensive glass, and bet on the Gators as small favorites in the Final Four.

Predicted Score: Florida 80 – Auburn 72

NCAAB Pick: Florida -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports 

Florida -2.5 (-108)

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