March Madness First-Round Showdown: Grand Canyon vs. Maryland Best Bet

While fourth-seeded Maryland is solid on both sides of the floor, we think they may have a battle on their hands with the 13-seeds from Grand Canyon in the West Region Friday. We are betting on the Antelopes as double-digit underdogs to stay inside that big number.

Points Off Turnovers

Maryland is 25-8 and finished second in the Big Ten with a 14-6 mark, resulting in currently excellent 12th ranking overall in Kenpom. This is a well-balanced squad that ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and an amazing sixth in defensive efficiency. However, we still think that the 12th ranking is a bit high for a team that is not outstanding in any category.

Yes, there is something to be said for a team that is good in every component, and the Terrapins are indeed “green” in all the major Kenpom factors. But if we disregard the overall efficiencies and look only at those factors, practically the same thing can be said about Grand Canyon.

Maryland excels at scoring points in transition, as they are 38th in turnover percentage forced and have a high Tempo Rating of 69.9 possessions, so they turn a lot of those turnovers into fast-break points. But again, as you will see, the Antelopes can do the same.

Repeat of Last Year?

Grand Canyon made some noise in March Madness last season, upsetting Saint Mary’s in the first round and then playing the eventual national semifinalists from Alabama tough in the second round before the Tide pulled away late to win by 11. They have followed that up this season by going 26-7, and although they finished second in the WAC at 13-3, they beat the regular-season champions for Utah Valley in the conference championship.

And while the Antelopes do not rank as high as Maryland in defensive efficiency, they are still a solid 68th at 100.7 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 106.8). They are also good in all defensive components, and they actually rank slightly better than Maryland in eFG% allowed (26th vs. 27th) and in turnover percentage forced (29th vs. 38th).

Also like the Terrapins, the Lopes are excellent at converting those turnovers into fast-break points while ranking 15th in the country in Tempo Rating at 71.5 possessions.

The Pick

So, while we think the better Maryland offense should allow the Terrapins to prevail on the court, Grand Canyon can cause problems with a defensive style that mirrors the Terps. Add in the experience from last year’s early rounds of the Big Dance and we are backing the Antelopes to hang close from start to finish.

Predicted Score: Maryland 76 – Grand Canyon 71

NCAAB Pick: Grand Canyon +10.5 (-108) at BetOnline

Grand Canyon +10.5 (-108)

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