MLB Pick: Twins ML (+100) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Wednesday’s Major League Baseball lineup is larger than usual, boasting 16 betting matchups, due to a doubleheader between the Rangers and Athletics. And, we have three plays that we feel hold great betting value.
Our second selection comes in the Twin Cities, as our proprietary model has the best bet on a side when the Mariners visit the Twins, turning it into an appealing opportunity considering the MLB odds provided by the top-rated sportsbooks.
Check out our other MLB expert picks:
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, May 08, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at Target Field
The Twins are now the hottest team in baseball following a very slow start, and we look for them to stay hot at home behind Chris Paddack hosting George Kirby and the Mariners.
One Bad Start
The Twins are 13-2 in their last 15 games and Paddack has contributed nicely to that success following two injury-plagued seasons where he made a total of just seven starts.
He has already made six starts this season, and while he has a 4.78 ERA and 3.92 xFIP, those figures are skewed by one bad start where he allowed nine runs in 5.1 innings.
Chris has been just fine in his other five starts, including tossing six scoreless innings while allowing just two hits with six strikeouts and one walk last time out vs. Boston.
And he has been at his best in three starts here at Target Field this season, posting a 1.02 ERA and 2.47 xFIP with 21 strikeouts and only three walks in 17.2 innings!
Good Pitcher, Bad Matchup
Now we do also like Kirby quite a bit, as he has a 3.76 ERA and 3.12 xFIP through seven starts with a great K/BB ratio of 9.63/0.94 per nine innings.
However, he suffered a knee injury during his last outing and was not cleared to make this start until a Monday bullpen session. Still, the Mariners probably want to be careful with him and may monitor his pitch count.
It also does not help to be facing a hot Minnesota offense that has reached double-digits in hits eight times during the 13-2 run as well as nine hits three other times. Since the start of this streak on April 22nd, the Twins have a sensational wRC+ of 145 (45% above average).
The Pick
Thus, we do not expect a peak performance from Kirby tonight, while we expect Paddack to continue his home dominance. We are betting on Minnesota at a cheap price at home.
Predicted Score: Twins 5 – Mariners 3
MLB Pick: Twins ML (+100) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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