Mariners vs. Athletics MLB Best Bet: Little Scoring To Come in Coliseum
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LT Profits
- September 4, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are currently on a 14-7 run in our last 21 plays entering Wednesday’s slate of MLB betting matchups. As usual, we are back with three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold nice value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a total in the Bay Area Wednesday with the Mariners visiting the Athletics.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Wednesday, September 04, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Oakland Coliseum
We are looking for a good old fashioned pitching duel in the Oakland Coliseum, and are thus backing the Under when George Kirby and the Mariners visit JP Sears and the Athletics.
Great Control
George Kirby is in his third Major League season, and he is on his way to a third straight year of posting a sub-4.00 ERA and xFIP; Those figures are at 3.63 and an aligning 3.64 entering this contest, so he probably deserves a better fate than his 10-10 record. He comes off a rare bad outing against the Angels allowing five earned runs in 5.1 innings, but he had been very consistent before that allowing three runs or less in 15 of his previous 16 starts.
George has some of the best command in baseball, with a great K/BB ratio of 8.55/1.17 per nine innings. That walk rate is the second-best in the majors behind only Zach Eflin. And it is not as if he takes anything off to get that pinpoint location, as he has a 95.9 MPH fastball and a fine overall Stuff+ rating of 107. He has an enormous repertoire of seven pitches, throwing four of those pitches over 10% of the time.
More Sliders, More Success
JP Sears comes in with a winning 11-9 record pitching for a team that is 17 games below .500. Granted, he has just a 4.21 ERA and 4.74 xFIP, but that does not tell the whole story. You see, Sears has been a different pitcher since increasing the usage of his slider, which is not his second most frequently thrown pitch at 34.4%, and getting closer to his fastball usage of 36.1%.
That switch could potentially change the trajectory of his career, as that slider has a 130 grading on Stuff+. And the results certainly bear that out, as JP has allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts while going 7-2 with a 3.19 ERA during this time. He comes off an outing where he allowed one run on only five hits in seven innings in Texas.
The Pick
So, this is a matchup of one young pitcher in Kirby who has had success all three years in the majors and another in Sears who can approach that status in time. This has us betting the Under on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Athletics 3– Mariners 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
