MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
How many people will score this Tuesday when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Seattle Mariners? Not many, according to the baseball odds available at the top sportsbooks.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, June 25, 2024 – 06:50 PM ET at Tropicana Field
The Tampa Bay Rays couldn’t keep it up forever. The Rays are notoriously good at stretching a dollar, but as you can see by Tampa’s 38-40 record (minus-4.83 betting units) at press time, there’s only so much you can accomplish with one of the smallest payrolls in Major League Baseball – just $98 million this year according to Spotrac, ahead of only Pittsburgh ($85MM) and Oakland ($63MM).
Run Differential Roulette
Tampa Bay’s lucky they’re not even further below .500. Their minus-62 run differential works out to a Pythagorean record of 32-46; that six-game gap between Tampa’s actual record and their expected performance is the biggest in the majors and a good sign that we should keep fading the Rays for our baseball picks.
If only they weren’t hosting the Seattle Mariners (45-35, plus-3.94 units) this Tuesday. The Mariners have been somewhat fortunate themselves, leading Houston by six games in the American League West despite owning a run differential that’s four runs smaller at plus-17. Seattle “should” be 42-38 at this point.
It’s all good. As you can see, we’re recommending the Under for Tuesday’s matchup, with a total of 7.5 runs on the MLB odds board at BetOnline and both sides priced at –110. These are two mediocre teams at the plate, with two starting pitchers who can get the job done for us.
Who’s Pitching for the Mariners?
Seattle (Under 43-33-4) will be at the top of their rotation Tuesday night with Luis Castillo (3.76 xFIP), the veteran northpaw and three-time All-Star with the 95-mph fastball and one of the best change-ups in the business. The Under is 10-4-2 in Castillo’s 16 starts thus far, although he did get lit up for five runs in two of his last three appearances, at Kansas City and again at Cleveland.
We’re not too concerned. Castillo’s xFIP is very close to his 3.63 ERA, and there’s nothing much in his peripheral stats to suggest that the regression monsters have come for his right arm. The Mariners also support their rotation with the No. 10-ranked bullpen in baseball according to FanGraphs WAR. They should be fine inside Tropicana Field, where the Under is on a 7-4 roll despite the Rays having the Over at 40-36 overall this year.
Who’s Pitching for the Rays?
Zack Littell (3.85 xFIP) is due up for Tampa Bay, and he’s part of the reason we’re going with the Under instead of fading the Rays. Littell may nominally be third in Tampa’s rotation, with a serviceable and meme-friendly 4.20 ERA, but the 28-year-old righty has arguably been their best starter this year.
It’s a miracle the Rays haven’t squandered that performance even worse. Littell has a team record of 7-8 (Over 8-7), and that includes 5-3 when Littell has recorded a No Decision, having allowed a combined 17 earned runs during those eight games.
It would help our cause – and Littell’s – if Tampa had a better bullpen. They’re No. 28 on the FanGraphs WAR charts, which will give Seattle’s otherwise unimpressive hitters (No. 19 overall, one spot below the Rays) a chance to ruin our night for us.
The Pick
But until the firemen come, Littell has allowed current Mariners a combined .339 OPS on just 4-for-26 hitting with one walk and zero extra-base hits. It’s a small sample size, but a promising one for our purposes; Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez (.655 OPS) is unlikely to break out of his slump Tuesday, having gone 0-for-5 lifetime off Littell with two strike-outs. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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