NCAAB Pick: Florida -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Well, we have now reached the Sweet 16 Round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, which takes place Thursday and Friday, with four matchups each night. All four top seeds are still alive, as well as three of the 2-seeds, with St. John’s being the only second-seeded casualty so far. Meanwhile, 10th-seeded Arkansas is the lone double-seeded Cinderella still in the Big Dance.
We are now here with a best bet for Thursday based mostly on our proprietary model, which has a side in the Maryland vs. Florida contest that we feel holds value at the current betting odds.
Maryland Terrapins vs. Florida Gators
Thursday, March 27, 2025 – 07:39 PM EDT at Chase Center
There is a good reason why top seeded Florida of the SEC is the second most popular pick to win the national championship in the BMR Forum 2025 March Madness Bracket Contest. We are betting on the Gators to prevail by double digits over the fourth seeds from the West Region in Maryland from the Big Ten.
Championship Contender
Outside of the overall top seeds from Duke, Florida is the next-best balanced team in the country in terms of efficiencies, ranking second in the land (behind Duke) in offensive efficiency and 11th defensively. This has led to their 32-4 record and SEC Tournament Championship after finishing second in the conference during the regular season behind Auburn.
The Gators are a very good shooting team that ranks 35th in eFG%, although that may be lower than one would think for a team second in efficiency. However, they pad their scoring significantly by generating many second chances, ranking fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.7%, well above the national norm of 29.8%.
Add in a better than average turnover rate that ranks 43rd at 15.2% (national average 17.2%), and Florida is fourth in the country in scoring with 85.4 points per game.
And then there is the defense that ranks fifth in eFG% allowed at a mere 45.4%. The biggest key here, though, is ranking fifth in 3-point defense, allowing just a 29.3% success rate, which should enable the Gators to mostly take away Maryland’s offensive strength.
Average 2-Point Shooting
Maryland enters at 27-8, and they finished second in the Big Ten at 14-6. We felt the Terrapins were a bit underrated entering this NCAA Tournament as they are also well-balanced in both ends of this court, ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency, with the latter actually ranking higher than Florida.
However, Florida is just a brutal matchup for the Terps. Maryland ranks 23rd in the country in 3-point shooting at 37.5%. But as mentioned, they do not figure to shoot that rate against the great Gators’ perimeter defense. That would be a major issue considering the Terrapins are only 125th in 2-point shooting at an ordinary 52.4%.
To make matters worse, the Terps do not figure to have nearly as many second opportunities either, with only a 149th ranking in offensive rebounding percentage.
In summary, Florida really has no weakness in any particular area while being one of the most efficient teams in the country on both ends. Meanwhile, Maryland’s average 2-point shooting is a detriment in a game where they don’t figure to have their normal success beyond the arc. Add in the normal SEC boost, and give the points to the Gators.
Predicted Score: Florida 86 – Maryland 74
NCAAB Pick: Florida -6.5 (-108) at Heritage SportsÂ
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
