The Oklahoma City Thunder are hosting the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 of their second round of the Western Conference, leading the series 1-0.
For your best bet, I recommend investing in the Mavericks with the latest NBA odds available at the top sportsbooks.
For an additional NBA best bet from our expert:
NBA Pick: Mavericks +5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, May 09, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Paycom Center
Luka Doncic
We knew heading into this series that Dallas superstar Luka Doncic was not at his best due to his knee.
But let’s not exaggerate things. As measured by field goal percentage, he had a worse performance last series, Game 3 against the Clippers.
He followed up that performance by upping his field goal conversion rate by 13.7 percent in Game 4, helping his team score ten more points than it did in Game 3.
Typically, he’s been much stronger offensively. Look for him to improve in Game 2 of this series with more distribution and more mid-range shooting.
Kyrie Irving
His teammate Kyrie Irving will take an even bigger step forward, though.
Irving’s Game 1 performance was too passive. He disappeared especially later in the game, taking too few shots. His efficiency was, however, promising.
Last series, he had a game in which he attempted as few field goals as he did in Game 1 of this series.
He followed that game by attempting more shots and scoring sixteen more points.
While the Thunder do have good defenders, it is tough to contain a superstar like Luka and Irving showed a lot of promise in Game 1 that he can build off of simply by being more aggressive.
Turnovers
Irving also committed avoidable turnovers. This will be something that he’ll cut down on, as when he followed his seven-turnover performance in Game 4 last series with a zero-turnover one in Game 5.
OKC scored 22 points off turnovers in Game 1, which was the difference in the game, so a more careful game at the very least from Irving will help Dallas tremendously.
The energy from Irving will be part of a team-wide improved effort in Game 2. The Thunder outrebounded Dallas in Game 1 as part of their stronger effort.
Based on total rebounding stats from this whole year, that should not happen.
Dallas will do a better job of finishing possessions on defense, which will bleed into a better rhythm on offense.
Three-Point Shooting
For their Game 1 win, the Thunder also relied on making an improbable 16 threes.
They overachieved significantly based on their season-long three-point conversion rate at home.
Led by Derrick Jones Jr., who boasts strong grades as an isolation perimeter defender, the Mavericks will curtail OKC’s three-point shooting in Game 2.
They have the personnel to do so, but they did not have the required discipline in Game 1, as evident in their undisciplined closeouts in that game. But this is an easily fixable problem.
This game was a tight one in the third quarter until the Thunder with their improbable three-point shooting efficiency pulled away.
Without that three-point shooting, the game stays close even with underachievement from Doncic and Irving and with the team-wide disappointment in turnovers, rebounds, and overall effort and energy.
Dallas’ three-point shooting will improve in Game 2 with high-volume shooter Tim Hardaway Jr. having shaken off his rust in Game 1 following a multi-week absence.
Inside Dominance
OKC’s decline in three-point shooting will position it to rely more on scoring inside where it will collide with Dallas’ high-quality rim protection.
The Mavericks have, in this postseason, done the best job at limiting opposing scoring within five feet of the basket.
Offensively, Maverick players like Daniel Gafford are too strong for the likes of OKC’s lean starting center Chet Holmgren.
The Pick
Dallas’ rim-running tendencies will complement its improved guard play.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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