NBA Pick: Celtics -7 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
As the NBA Finals advance, the top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Game 5 between the Mavericks and Celtics, so join us as we find the best value for this game.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Boston.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics
Monday, June 17, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at TD Garden
Game 4 Was Anomalous
Heading into Game 4, Boston was undefeated in its series with Dallas. By winning the first three games of the series, the Celtics motivated our perception that they were clearly the better team and that they would own the series.
The Mavericks, however, won Game 4, and they did so by an astounding margin.
Should Game 4 alter our perception of how this series will go? I think that it should not, because I contend that Game 4 was anomalous.
Forgetting Game 4
From the first two rounds of the playoffs, we already knew that that the Celtics are prone to the occasional bad game in which they lack focus and effort.
In the first round, the Celtics dominated their series against Miami, beating the Heat four times by double digits. However, they had that one bad game: they lost Game 2 at home by ten points.
Likewise, Boston proved itself to be vastly stronger than Cleveland, its second-round opponent. However, in that series, too, Boston had that one bad game: the Celtics let Cleveland beat them at home by an absurd 24 points.
We must forget what Dallas did to the Celtics in Game 4 because this game was merely another indication of Boston’s proneness to the occasional and anomalous lapse. As in the case of the first two rounds of the playoffs, Boston will lose once by double digits to a team that it is clearly better than.
We see, for example, in the absurd rebound disparity between Dallas and Boston in Game 4 that the Celtics’ effort was not there. We also see in Boston’s unusually low field goal percentage that it was not in-tune. Moreover, the Mavericks in Game 4 were in a spot that has been golden for them throughout the postseason: they have always dominated the game following a loss at home. That spot is over for them now.
Boston’s Great Spot in Game 5
It is the Celtics, in Game 5, who are in a great spot because they are coming off a loss and because they can clinch the series at home with one more win.
The Celtics have lost two postseason games so far. They won the game following their first loss by 20 points and the game following their second loss by 13 points. Moreover, Boston has had two opportunities to clinch a series at home.
It converted both of its opportunities, beating Miami at home by 24 points and Cleveland at home by 13 points.
Evidently, following a loss and with a chance to clinch a series at home, Boston is locked in. With this plurality of advantageous situational circumstances in the Celtics’ favor, we should expect them to play their best.
The Matchup
Boston’s best basketball will involve a double-digit win because of the extent to which it matches up excellently against Dallas. The Celtics have shown in the first three games of the series, all wins, including a seven-point road win and an 18-point win at home, that they are the better team.
After all, both teams had a week to prepare for each other, and now they’ve played each other multiple times. Each team’s cards are shown: we’ve seen what each team has to offer and we see that one team, Boston, clearly has the matchup edge.
On offense, Boston has been efficient inside and is knocking down way more threes than Dallas is. As a bonus, the Celtics are even better from the free-throw line.
Boston’s Defense In This Series
Boston’s defense is designed to take away the corner three, which is crucial because Dallas’ offense relies heavily on corner threes. Moreover, the Celtics possess sufficient breadth of able perimeter defenders to be able to defend Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving one-on-one.
Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are both All-NBA Defensive Team selections. Jaylen Brown was close to being one this season, and his physicality and physical skill set allow him to match up well against Luka, while Holiday, for example, matches up well as a defender against Irving. Irving is anyhow totally flummoxed by Boston’s crowd – he used to be a Celtic and has struggled to beat the Celtics since he stomped on Boston’s leprechaun logo.
Boston’s ability to guard Luka and Kyrie one-on-one allows the Celtics to stick to Luka and Kyrie’s teammates, forcing them to create on their own, which they are unable to do, especially against Boston’s defenders. Thus, Dallas isn’t able to get the easy shots that it did against Minnesota.
Boston’s Superior Offense
Dallas wants to wall off the paint to prevent dribble penetration, making it more vulnerable stylistically to a Boston offense that wants to stay behind the arc and shoot a lot of threes. The Celtics will field five dangerous shooters on the court at a single time, allowing them to space out Dallas’ defenders.
It is hard to fly around on defense when the offense possesses this extent of shooting talent plus Boston’s passing. Boston’s spacing facilitates its ability to drive inside. The Celtics especially target and wear down Dallas’ top two scorers (Luka and Kyrie).
Holiday, despite being a guard, is also effective in the dunker spot, with Dallas’ bigs drawn away from the basket, where their rim protection, which had been a crucial component of Dallas’ success on defense, gets negated.
Takeaway
The situation and the match-up both favor the Celtics strongly. Don’t let Boston’s characteristic occasional lapse in Game 4 alter your understanding of what happened in the first three games of this series, which was entirely revealing of each team’s capabilities.
NBA Pick: Celtics -7 (-110) at BetOnline
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