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Mets vs. Brewers MLB Postseason Best Bet: Milwaukee Brews Up Win in Game 2
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LT Profits
- October 2, 2024
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MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-101) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs continue with Game 2 of all four Wild Card Series on Wednesday. Coming off a 2-1 Tuesday with a +141 winner, we are back with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel currently hold great betting value at the present MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Badger State, where our model favors a side when the Mets visit the Brewers again for Game 2.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Royals vs. Orioles AL Wild Card Game 2
- Braves vs. Padres NL Wild Card Game 2
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered this game as well as the Braves vs. Padres bout.
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, October 02, 2024 – 07:38 PM ET at American Family Field
The Mets drew first blood taking Game 1 by an 8-4 score, but we are betting on the Brewers to force a third game with Frankie Montas on the mound opposing Sean Manaea on Wednesday.
Escape From Cincinnati
It seems unfair to look at Montas’s overall numbers this season, which have him at 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA and 4.26 xFIP. That is because he was like two different pitchers while pitching for the Reds and the Brewers. He hated pitching in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and was tentative in attacking the strike zone. This had him at 4-8 with a 5.01 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, and 7.52/9 strikeout rate when he was traded to the Brewers.
This was a breath of fresh air for Frankie Montas, who rediscovered his form and attacked the strike zone more for Milwaukee. Granted his ERA for the Brewers was only 4.55, but he posted a 3.55 xFIP with the help of an impressive strikeout rate of 10.99/9 over 11 starts. And the ERA was skewed by one bad outing as he allowed three earned runs or less in eight of the other 10 starts and four runs in the other two.
Hit Hard Last Time
Manaea had a nice comeback season for the Mets, going 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA. However, the news was not all good as his xFIP of 4.04 did not support the ERA, mainly due to walk issues at 3.12/9. He also did not have a good soft/hard contact ratio at 15.6% / 32.0%. But most concerning is that after being very consistent over the first five months, September was Manaea’s worst month.
Sean Manaea may have simply hit a wall as his 181.2 innings pitched are a career high. Whatever the reason, his ERA of 4.06 in the last five outings may have begun his regression toward his xFIP. Furthermore, his last start came right here in Milwaukee on Friday, and it may have been his worst start of the season with the Brewers tagging him for six runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings.
The Pick
So, with Manaea tailing off and Montas finding new life in Milwaukee, back the Brewers to even up the series at a cheap price at home in Game 2.
Predicted Score: Brewers 5 – Mets 3
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-101) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
