Mets vs. Brewers MLB Postseason Best Bet: Many Markers in Milwaukee for Game 1
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LT Profits
- October 1, 2024
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs start on Tuesday with Game 1 of each of the four respective Wild Card Series. And, as we have all year, we return with three best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel currently hold nice value.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a total in the Badger State with the Mets visiting the Brewers. Before you place your bets, let’s break down the latest MLB odds.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Tigers vs. Astros AL Wild Card Game 1
- Royals vs. Orioles AL Wild Card Game 1
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered the Mets vs. Brewers and Braves vs. Padres games.
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, October 01, 2024 – 05:32 PM ET at American Family Field
While we do not consider either Freddy Peralta of the Brewers nor Luis Severino of the Mets “bad”, we see this as the weakest pitching matchup of all Game 1s Tuesday and are backing the Over.
Disappointing Season
We expected big things from Freddy Peralta entering this season, but he went a disappointing 11-9, and while his 3.68 ERA and 3.93 xFIP were adequate, those are not really “ace” numbers. Peralta was rather erratic due to worse command than usual, as his walk rate of 3.52/9 was his highest rate since 2000.
Yes, Freddy had a very good strikeout rate of 10.36/9, although even that was down over a batter from his outstanding 11.41/9 last year. But when Peralta was not striking batters out this season, he combined a low groundball rate of 36.7% with an above average hard contact rate of 31.8%. That is a combination we never like to see, and it becomes especially dangerous against a Mets team that ranked fifth in the Major Leagues with 205 home runs.
xFIP Over 4.00
Luis Severino is the de facto ace of the Mets staff after going 11-7 this season. But he did so with a 3.91 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, and 2.1 WAR, none of which are ace worthy. He did not close the season particularly strongly, allowing at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts. And he came up short in his biggest start of the regular season in Atlanta last Tuesday, allowing four earned runs in four innings and taking the loss.
Luis had a rather ordinary K/BB ratio of 7.96/2.97 this season with that strikeout rate matching his career low from last year, which is a bad sign for a 30-year-old. That reduction was validated by his single-digit swinging strike rate of 9.4%. Severino was also hit hard in his only start vs. Milwaukee this season, allowing six runs and 11 hits in only five innings. And this is still a Brewers’ offense that finished eighth in the majors in OPS against right-handed pitching.
The Pick
This looks like a matchup between two flawed aces and two offenses capable of doing damage, so let us bet the Over in Game 1 from Milwaukee.
Predicted Score: Brewers 5 – Mets 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
