Mets vs. Brewers MLB Postseason Best Bet: Lindor & New York Beat Milwaukee to Advance

While Baltimore, Houston, and San Diego are missing out on a big chunk of ticket sales revenue today after their Wild Card Series each went the minimum two games, Milwaukee is headed back to the bank as the Brewers and New York Mets meet for a third and deciding contest.

Just like few expected the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers to pull off road sweeps in their AL Wild Card clashes, very few people when the season started – even in the New York and Milwaukee front offices – expected to see Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75) and Tobias Myers (9-6, 3.00) face off on the mound in a winner take all matchup.

Baseball bettors are looking at some tight moneylines for the game. The Brewers are running -125 at BetOnline where a 7½-run total is priced evenly high and low.

The Series So Far

An ‘over’ bet is certainly tempting after each of the first two games went past the closing 7½-run marks. New York rallied twice in Tuesday’s opener for an 8-4 decision that sent Mets backers back to the window to collect on their +130 bet slips.

It was Milwaukee coming from behind twice in Game 2 for a 5-3 victory as -130 chalk. Garrett Mitchell’s 2-run blast in the eighth was the decisive blow, and Jackson Chourio homered twice for the Brewers, including a blast leading off the game after the Mets had gone up 1-0.

The Brewers are looking for a repeat of their home showing against the Mets just last weekend when Milwaukee won 2 of the 3 games to close the regular season. ‘Under’ bettors also cashed twice in that series that saw relatively close moneylines in each contest.

Milwaukee also swept the series at Citi Field when the two clubs played to open the season back in March, two of the matchups staying below the MLB odds. The Brewers have won 12 of the last 15 dating to 2023 as the clubs close their first postseason meeting against one another.

Brew Crew 2-0 Vs. Quintana in 2024

Quintana and Myers squared off last weekend at American Family Field…well, not exactly. Milwaukee used southpaw Jared Koenig to open that contest, and Brewers skippers Pat Murphy could very well go with the same strategy on Thursday.

It was Myers who earned the dubya as the bulk reliever, tossing 4 of the 9 shutout innings six Milwaukee hurlers combined to throw in the 6-0 final. Myers allowed just 1 hit while striking out 5, and Quintana pitched into the fifth while giving up 2 runs and whiffing an impressive 9.

That contest closed around a pick, and came up comfortably short of an 8½-run total.

Quintana also faced the Brewers in the season opener between the two, and also dropped that decision as Milwaukee posted a 3-1 triumph. It was a very similar outing for the Colombian veteran who worked into the fifth inning and allowed 2 runs.

A most unlikely rookie season continues for Myers, who was signed as a free agent a couple of years ago after he passed through five organizations from 2016-22. He started the year at Triple-A Nashville and didn’t make his MLB debut until April 23.

The Brewers won 3 of his 4 starts, plus the bulk relief appearance Myers made against the Mets. He pitched to a 2.86 ERA at home this year in 13 games (69.1 IP).

Umpire Notes & Roof Report

Vic Carapazza will call balls and strikes for Alan Porter’s crew in the series finale. Carapazza went through the regular season with a 14-19 O/U record behind the dish, including a balanced 4-4 O/U in games that closed with 7½-run totals.

This will be Carapazza’s eighth postseason plate assignment, the most recent of those in Game 1 of last year’s NLDS between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers, an easy ‘over’ winner in the Snakes’ 11-2 win.

The roof has been closed the first two games of the series, and is expected to be shut once again for Game 3 despite nice weather in the greater Beer City area. If it is open, there isn’t anything in the forecast that will affect the game as the weatherman is calling for clear skies, a 67° reading on the thermometer at first pitch, and a light NE breeze (left to right).

The Pick

Being at home is a huge plus for the Brewers, who went 47-34 at Great American Park this season. Milwaukee’s recent domination of the Mets is another reason to like the Brewers.

But there’s just something about New York that leads me to a free MLB pick on the Mets.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (+115) at BetOnline

Mets ML (+115)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.