Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 2 Best Bet: Can Sean Manaea Pull Off an Upset for New York?
-
LT Profits
- October 14, 2024
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are 7-4-1 thus far in the 2024 MLB Playoffs, which continue with Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday. And we are here with our top plays from top sportsbooks that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds, based mostly on our proprietary model.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1
And if you’re looking for even more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. For today, our expert covered the Guardians vs. Yankees game.
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, October 14, 2024 – 04:08 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers drew first blood in Game 1 last night with a 9-0 blowout. However, we are banking on the Mets to bounce back with the hot Sean Manaea in Game 2 with the Dodgers employing a bullpen game.
Has Shined in Playoffs
Sean Manaea had an excellent first season with the Mets going 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA in 32 starts, the first time he has been a fulltime starter since 2021. He had a nice strikeout rate of 9.12/9 with a 11.2% swinging strike rate, helped by the fact that his sinker and fastball both averaged an identical 92.3 MPH. And since his sinker has a late drop, that kept batters off balance.
Now, we admit that we were pessimistic about Sean coming into the playoffs after September was his worst month of the season. We thought he had hit a wall after tossing a career high 181.2 innings during the season, which we thought would be extra stressful after being only a part-time starter over the last two years while splitting time as a reliever.
But Manaea has proven us to be wrong with two good starts this post-season. First, he allowed two runs in five innings at Milwaukee in the Wild Card Series. Then, more impressively, he held the Phillies to one run (scored after he departed) and just three hits in seven innings in the NLDS.
It Only Takes One
Now obviously, bullpen games can be difficult to predict. And to be fair, this strategy by the Dodgers worked to perfection when they could have been eliminated in Game 4 of the NLDS down 2-1 to the Padres.
Eight Dodger pitchers combined to shut out San Diego that night in an 8-0 win before LA went on to win Game 5 to advance. Still, we are willing to bet that does not happen again, and as sharp as Manaea has been, it may take just one bad performance from one of the relievers to lose this game. And remember, the LA bullpen ranked just 23rd in the majors in xFIP during the season at 4.21.
The Pick
With Manaea showing no ill effects from his heavy regular season workload during the playoffs and the Dodgers bullpen likely overachieving in their last bullpen game, bet the Mets as Game 2 underdogs.
Predicted Score: Mets 4 – Dodgers 3
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+120) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
