Mets vs. Padres MLB Best Bet: Plenty of Runs at Petco Park
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LT Profits
- August 25, 2024
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-106) at BetOnline
We are currently on a 4-2 run in our last six plays entering Sunday’s slate of MLB betting matchups, including a +125 winner Friday. As usual, we have three more best bets for today’s slate that we feel hold great value at the current MLB odds, courtesy of the top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a total in San Diego on Sunday with the Mets visiting the Padres.
Don’t forget to check out our other picks for Sunday:
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, August 25, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at PETCO Park
We are looking for a high-scoring affair in Petco Park on Sunday when Martin Perez and the Padres host Jose Quintana and the Mets.
He Is What We Thought He Was
Peres has carved out a career for himself by continuously posting overachieving ERAs relative to his underlying metrics. That started to change somewhat last season, although his ERA of 4.45 was still better than his 4.96 xFIP. However, that variance was not as big as his previous seasons, and now things are more closely aligning this year, with Perez being the type of pitcher he was all along despite past deceptive ERAs.
He enters at 3-5 for the season with a 4.67 ERA, which for a change has reflected the faults he has always had. He has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.30/3.06 with a low swinging strike rate of 8.5%. And batters are getting good swings against him too, with Martin’s hard contact rate above average at 31.6%.
Furthermore, the southpaw is facing a Mets offense ranked second in the majors in wRC+ against left-handers at 118.
Getting Worse
Quintana has an unrealistic great start in his first season with the Mets, but he has returned to reality and currently sits at 6-9 with a 4.57 ERA and 4.69 xFIP. Like Perez, Quintana also has a poor K/BB ratio of 7.12/3.49 per nine innings along with a high hard contact rate of 35.0%.
Worst of all, Jose has gotten worse as the season has gone on, with August being his most brutal month thus far. He has made four starts this month and posted a hideous 8.27 ERA and 6.22 xFIP. His K/BB ratio is worse than ever in August at 6.97/5.23 per nine innings, with his “best” start being allowing three earned runs but with four walks and four strikeouts in only five innings.
While we like the Mets to win this game due to their offensive prowess against lefties, our official bet here is on the Over in San Diego with two struggling pitchers.
Predicted Score: Mets 6 – Padres 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
