MLB Pick: Under 9 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a typical full slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday with 14 afternoon games plus Sunday Night Baseball. Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, let’s take a closer look at a play we feel has the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
This is a value-bet based mostly on our proprietary model, which likes a total in the Mets vs. Pirates matchup.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Sunday, July 07, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at PNC Park
We think runs will be hard to come by in Pittsburgh, and thus we are backing the Under when Sean Manaea and the Mets visit Luis Ortiz and the Pirates.
Worst Offensive Split
Manaea has had a bit of a rejuvenation this season in his first year with the Mets. He enters at 5-3 but would have a better record with more run support given his 3.67 ERA through 16 starts. His last start was a perfect example, as he allowed just one earned run on five hits in seven innings yet managed only a no-decision.
Now 32 years old, Sean has still maintained a good strikeout rate of 8.75/9. He is doing that mostly with a heavy 92.4 MPH sinker that has a good late drop and a biting slider with a nice 107 Stuff+ rating. The end-result has been allowing three runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts.
He should now have continued success against a Pittsburgh offense at its worst offense split, especially since June 1st. The Pirates have a pitiful wRC+ of 74 against southpaws at home since that date.
Effective in Multiple Roles
Since we do not expect the Pirates to do much of anything against Manaea, that would give Ortiz some leeway here in allowing a few runs with this game remaining Under. And he has been mostly effective in whatever role he has been asked to do.
This spot start will be the second of the season to go along with 22 relief appearances. He has posted a 3.27 ERA over 55 innings, while usually pitching in long relief or following an opener. He even went six innings in his lone start, so this can be classified as a “normal” start and not an opening or semi-opening assignment.
And Ortiz seems more than capable given his ERA, the rise in his soft-contact rate since last year to 17.2% from 12.7% and the improvement in his hard-contact rate to 31.3% from a ghastly 41.2%.
The Pick
So, with Manaea being consistently good this year and facing a struggling offense, and Ortiz capable of earning more future starts, bet the Under in Pittsburgh.
Predicted Score: Mets 4 – Pirates 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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