MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (+100) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After going 8-4 in our last 12 plays, we’re back with three plays that offer great betting value at the current MLB odds from top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Big Apple, where our model likes a total when the Mets make the short ride to visit the Yankees.
Visit our MLB World Series betting page for detailed coverage and expert analysis of this year’s biggest baseball showdown.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 – 07:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
We expect a higher scoring game than this total implies in the finale of a brief two-game Subway Series on Wednesday. Thus, we are betting the Over with Gerrit Cole and the Yankees being home hosting Sean Manaea and the Mets.
Roughed Up by Mets Last Time
Cole is the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, but he had a belated start to his 2024 campaign due to an elbow injury, which is always scary. And Cole has not been himself quite yet while posting a 4.60 ERA and 4.13 xFIP through six starts while covering only 29.1 innings.
Granted he has looked better in his last two starts while allowing one run in six innings on each occasion. However, while most pitchers would be happy with a 95.9 MPH fastball, that is the lowest point for Gerrit since 2016, and his swinging strike rate of 11.6% is his lowest since 2017.
And let us not forget that he is facing the same Mets team that lit him up for six earned runs in four innings on June 25. The Mets have since gone on to post a very good wRC+ of 115 against righties in July.
Possible Regression?
Now, we actually like Sean Manaea and have had success betting on him this season. After all, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 of his 19 starts this season. However, the fourth non-quality start came last time out when he allowed five earned runs on eight hits with only one strikeout in five innings against the normally light-hitting Marlins.
As consistent as Manaea has been, there is still the fear of looming negative regression considering his 3.73 ERA is not quite supported by a 4.29 xFIP. He has mostly pitched around a high walk rate of 3.64/9, thanks mainly to a good strikeout rate of 8.62/9. However, the walks could be even higher than his already weak rate against a disciplined Yankees offense that has the highest walk rate in baseball at 10.5%.
The Pick
With Manaea regressing against a weak lineup last out while now facing a great one, and Cole getting lit up by the Mets last month, back the Over in the Bronx in this spot.
Predicted Score: Mets 6 – Yankees 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (+100) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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