Michigan vs. Illinois College Football Week 8 Picks: Low Total Signals Value

Michigan Can’t Keep Up With Washington

Michigan fell short in a National Championship rematch against Washington on October 5, losing 27-17. Despite taking a 17-14 lead after rallying from an early 14-0 deficit, the Wolverines were unable to score in the final quarter, allowing Washington to seize control with two late touchdowns.

The loss marked Michigan’s first conference defeat, as Washington avenged its 34-13 loss in the 2023 national title game.

Michigan’s offense found brief success, putting together 17 unanswered points between the second and third quarters. Backup quarterback Jack Tuttle came in after Alex Orji struggled, and though he provided a spark, two critical turnovers late in the game – a forced fumble and an interception – gave Washington the opportunities it needed to close out the win.

On the bright side, Donovan Edwards was a standout for the Wolverines, totaling 118 yards on 16 touches, including a touchdown. Michigan finished with 287 yards of offense, with 174 on the ground and 113 through the air.

Defensively, Michigan saw strong performances from Ernest Hausmann, who notched a career-high 12 tackles and an interception, and Josaiah Stewart and TJ Guy, who combined for 2.5 sacks and several key stops.

Illinois Survives Against Purdue

Meanwhile, in a thrilling overtime contest, Illinois edged Purdue 50-49. Luke Altmyer connected with Pat Bryant for a 25-yard touchdown in OT, and Dylan Rosiek’s clutch sack on Purdue’s two-point conversion attempt sealed the win for the No. 23 Illini. Altmyer finished the day with 379 yards passing and three touchdowns, while Josh McCray contributed 78 yards rushing and two scores.

Illinois’ rushing leader Kaden Feagin missed the game due to a hyperextended left leg, which he suffered in practice earlier in the week. Head coach Bret Bielema indicated Feagin would be out “for a little bit.” Feagin had totaled 306 yards on 67 carries and scored three touchdowns in Illinois’ first five games.

Key Matchups

The upcoming clash between Michigan and Illinois promises to be a physical Big Ten battle, with both teams looking to rebound from recent struggles. Michigan, coming off a tough loss to Washington, will be eager to get back on track, while Illinois enters the game riding the momentum of a thrilling overtime win against Purdue.

Both teams have showcased strong performances on both sides of the ball, but key injuries and offensive inconsistencies could shape the outcome of this matchup.

Michigan’s Rushing Attack vs. Illinois’ Defensive Front

Michigan’s ground game, led by Edwards, will be crucial in setting the tone. Edwards put up 118 yards against Washington, and with Illinois missing their top rusher Feagin, the Wolverines will likely look to control the clock through the run game.

Illinois has shown vulnerability up front, but they’ll need to rely on defensive playmakers like Rosiek to step up and limit Michigan’s rushing attack. If Michigan can establish the run early, it will open up passing opportunities and put pressure on Illinois to respond offensively.

Jack Tuttle vs. Illinois’ Secondary

After a shaky performance against Washington, Tuttle will need to protect the football better if Michigan is going to come away with a win. Illinois’ secondary is capable of making big plays, as they’ve shown with key turnovers in past games.

With Tuttle struggling late in Michigan’s last outing, his decision-making and ability to avoid costly mistakes will be critical. Illinois will likely focus on forcing Tuttle into uncomfortable situations and capitalize on any turnovers.

Illinois’ Offense vs. Michigan’s Defense

Altmyer has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in the overtime thriller against Purdue, where he threw for 379 yards and three touchdowns.

Without Feagin, Illinois will need to lean heavily on Altmyer’s arm and the receiving talents of Bryant, who had a 100+ yard game against Purdue. However, Michigan’s defense, led by Hausmann and his career-high 12 tackles and interception against Washington, won’t make it easy.

Michigan will aim to pressure Altmyer, particularly through the pass rush of Stewart and Guy, who combined for 2.5 sacks last week.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Turnovers played a significant role in both teams’ recent games, with Michigan’s two late turnovers against Washington proving costly, while Illinois’ win was secured by a sack on a two-point conversion attempt. Whichever team wins the turnover battle will likely have the upper hand in this contest.

Michigan will need to protect the ball, especially in the fourth quarter, and Illinois will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes, as they did against Purdue.

The Pick

Both teams will rely heavily on their key playmakers, with Michigan focusing on their rushing attack and Illinois turning to Altmyer to carry the load in the absence of Feagin.

The game is likely to have turnovers and time of possession playing crucial roles. Michigan’s defense will aim to contain Altmyer and force Illinois into third-and-long situations, while Edwards will be expected to shoulder the offensive burden for the Wolverines.

Ultimately, Michigan’s ability to run the ball and their defensive playmakers should give them the edge in a close contest. If Tuttle can limit his mistakes, the Wolverines will have just enough to pull away late in a high-scoring game.

College Football Pick: Over 43 (-120) at Bookmaker

Over 43 (-120)

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