NCAAB Pick: Auburn -8.5 (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have reached the Sweet 16 Round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, which takes place Thursday and Friday with four matchups each night. And one of the big stories is that the SEC, considered to be the best conference in the land all year, has validated that hype by setting a record with seven teams reaching the round of 16! This includes two top seeds in Florida and Auburn and the two lowest seeds remaining in Arkansas and Mississippi.
We are now here with a best bet for Friday based mostly on our proprietary model, which has a side in the Michigan vs. Auburn contest that we feel holds value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Auburn Tigers
Friday, March 28, 2025 – 09:39 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
We have another SEC vs. Big Ten matchup in the second game of the South Region on Friday night, where we are looking for top-seeded Auburn to prevail rather handily when taking on the 5-seeds from Michigan.
Great Efficiency on Both Ends
Do not forget that Auburn was the #1 team in the country for a long stretch this season. After all, they have won 30 games at 30-5 and they were the regular season champions in what is now undoubtedly the best conference in the country. Sure, they had lost three of their last four games prior to the NCAA Tournament after starting 27-2, but they have regrouped with two double-digit wins, most recently beating Creighton 82-70.
The best thing about the Tigers is they are amazingly efficient on both ends of the floor while having no major weakness in any component. They are third in the country in offensive efficiency while shooting the ball well (25th in eFG%) and protecting the ball extremely well while ranking fifth in turnover percentage.
On the other end of the floor, they are 12th in defensive efficiency and 15th in eFG% allowed. Their biggest strength defensively is defending the perimeter, ranking:
- 7th in 3-point defense at a mere 29.6%.
- 44th in 2-point defense.
So, it is easy to see why Auburn topped the polls for so long.
Huge Turnover Disadvantage
Michigan is 27-9 and finished third in the Big 12 at 14-6. They got here by upsetting another SEC team in Texas A&M 91-79 in the second round. They scored those 91 points while committing only nine turnovers, which is atypical of their play this season. We do not expect a repeat of that clean play here, which in turn means we do not expect them to knock off a second straight SEC opponent.
In fact, the Wolverines rank poorly in the turnover department on both ends of the court. They are a sloppy 324th in turnover percentage offensively at 19.6% (national average 17.2%), which is why we alluded to the nine turnovers on Saturday being an aberration.
Moreover, they do not apply pressure defensively ranking 278th in turnover percentage forced at 15.7%, and that passiveness was still apparent in the big win over A&M while forcing only eight turnovers. And remember what we said about Auburn’s excellent ball protection, so the Tigers can go to town here while running basically whatever they want offensively.
The Pick
We think that expected enormous turnover advantage for a great Auburn team could potentially allow this game to get out or hand relatively quickly. We are betting on the Tigers even as decided favorites Friday to advance to the Elite Eight.
Predicted Score: Auburn 84 – Michigan 69
NCAAB Pick: Auburn -8.5 (-117) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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