Ole Miss vs. Michigan State March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bet

We expect both teams to find offensive success in the first game in the South Region on Friday night. This has us backing the Over when second-seeded Michigan State takes on one of the seven SEC teams still alive in the NCAA Tournament in the 7-seeds from Mississippi.

Can Do Damage Inside

Michigan State is 29-6 and won the regular season Big Ten title at 17-3, leaving them seventh in the country overall in Kenpom. They have continued to score points despite being a bad 3-point shooting team (ranked 323rd), ranking 25th in offensive efficiency. They put up 87 points in the first round, and although they got by New Mexico 71-63 in the second round, that was in a relatively slower-paced 65-possession game.

The Spartans make for their lack of 3-pointers by generating a lot of second chances, getting to the foul line a lot and making their free throws when they get there. To wit, they are:

• 19th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
• 44th in FTA/FGA ratio at 37.9% (national average 33.0%).
• 25th in foul shooting at 77.6%.

And perhaps the best news of all is that Sparty can do a ton of damage inside during this game against one of the softest interior defenses in the SEC, with Ole Miss ranked 209th in the country in 2-point defense.

Unhindered Offense

Mississippi is 24-11 and finished with a winning 10-8 record inside the SEC, and they reached this point by upsetting North Carolina and Iowa State in the first two rounds. They scored up 91 points against the Cyclones on Sunday while committing only eight turnovers the entire game.

That is nothing new for the Rebels, as they ranked an amazing third in the nation in turnover percentage, at a mere 12.9% (national average 17.2%). That outstanding ball protection keyed a lofty 24th ranking in offensive efficiency at 118.8 points per 100 possessions.

Well, that makes this an excellent matchup for Ole Miss against a Michigan State defense that does not apply much pressure, ranking 245th in turnover percentage force at 16.2%.

The Pick

We think both teams should be able to score points here.

Michigan State should overcome its poor 3-point shooting by dominating a soft Rebels’ interior defense, while Mississippi can run its offense unhindered with the Spartans being unable to turn teams over. Bet on the Over in the opening game Friday.

Predicted Score: Michigan State 79 – Mississippi 75

NCAAB Pick: Over 144 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Over 144 (-108)

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