Missouri vs. Alabama College Football Week 9 Free Pick: Betting on a Low-Scoring Showdown

We’re Eyeing the Under in This SEC Showdown

We had to break the cycle at some point. Our college football picks here at the ranch have been on point recently, but that’s because they keep giving us SEC games where the home team is the underdog despite being somewhat evenly matched:

• Georgia 34, Alabama 41 (ALA +2)
• Ole Miss 26, LSU 29 OT (LSU +4)
• Alabama 17, Tennessee 24 (TENN +3.5)

Now we’ve got the Alabama Crimson Tide hosting the Missouri Tigers this Saturday, and while the AP rankings suggest there isn’t much difference between No. 15 Alabama and No. 21 Missouri, the college football odds at press time have the Tide laying 14 points. Should we just keep plucking that chicken?

Heck, no. This is still a mismatch on paper, and for whatever reason, the ‘Bama boys have played down to their competition lately, losing outright to Vanderbilt (+23 at home) before barely avoiding the same fate against South Carolina (+21 away).

So let’s do what we did with our other winning pick during this NCAAF betting hot streak: Take the Under. We cashed in when Georgia beat Auburn 31-13 (Under 51) in Week 6; Saturday’s total is already down to 56 at Heritage after opening as high as 57.5, but that still leaves us enough room for at least a small wager on the Under.

Is Alabama Toast?

Probably not. There’s a lot of anger being pointed at head coach Kalen DeBoer out there in the shouty-sports space – that’s what you get for trying to follow in Nick Saban’s footsteps. But losing to Tennessee at Rocky Top isn’t the end of the world. For that matter, Vanderbilt (plus-7.91 SRS at Sports Reference) is easily enjoying its best year since the end of the James Franklin Era in 2013-14.

As is often the case, the advanced stats tell a different tale than the haters – and the polls for that matter. BCF Toys has Alabama at No. 6 overall (No. 6 offense, No. 17 defense, No. 38 special teams) on their latest F+ Ratings, well ahead of Missouri at No. 19 (No. 27 offense, No. 21 defense, No. 40 special teams).

Yet we can’t quite bring ourselves to recommend ‘Bama for your Week 9 college football picks. Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today, projects Alabama to win by around 11 points using his general “Rating” metric, but closer to 13.5 points using his “Recent” and “Strong Recent” numbers. Meanwhile, Sagarin has these two SEC teams combining for about 52 points this Saturday.

That seems about right. As many feared this offseason, the Tigers (plus-9.33 SRS) have taken a step back after winning the Cotton Bowl, particularly on offense, where QB Brady Cook will be playing on a gimpy ankle after getting hurt early during Missouri’s 21-17 comeback win over Auburn (Under 49). That Tide defense is licking its chops right about now.

The Pick

Sadly, the weather gods are giving us a beautiful Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa, with sunny skies over Bryant-Denny Stadium and temperatures approaching 80 degrees. It’s hardly ideal, nor is the fact that ‘Bama has the Over at 5-2 thus far, after allowing 34 points to Georgia and another 35 to Vanderbilt.

No sweat. Not only is Mizzou (Under 5-2) bringing their pop-gun offense to town, but they’re also coming in off the softest schedule in the SEC by a country mile. And that Under “should” be 6-1 after the Tigers and Vandy went into overtime tied 20-20 before Mizzou prevailed 30-27 (Over 52) in Week 4. Bet accordingly.

NCAAF Pick: Under 56 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Under 56 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.