Phillies vs. Mets MLB Best Bet: Surging Mets Remain Hot Against Philly

It really doesn’t matter where they are in the standings, it’s always good theatre when the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets get together. It just so happens they are sitting 1-2 in the NL East currently, which makes their 4-game weekend set all the more critical.

Oddsmakers at BetOnline believe New York will get the series started on a winning note and cut into Philadelphia’s lead atop the division. The Phillies send Taijuan Walker (3-6, 6.29) to the mound while the Mets counter with Luis Severino (10-6, 3.77) in Game 1.

Phils Have Taken 13 of Last 18 From the Mets

This is a big series for both clubs, and Philadelphia begins with a very comfortable 7-game lead over New York in the NL East race, and a magic number of 4 to clinch the division title.

The Phillies would love to build some momentum heading to the finish line by taking 3 of 4 from any team, even better if that any team is a division rival with playoff aspirations like the Mets.

New York realistically must take 3 of 4 from Philadelphia or risk falling back in the NL Wild Card chase. The Mets start the set knotted with the Diamondbacks for the second wild card, 2.5-games behind San Diego at the top of that list. The Atlanta Braves are 2 games behind New York and Arizona.

Tight Lines, Low Totals

Their three previous series this season include the trip in June to London where the Mets and Phillies split the 2-games that each stayed ‘under’ a couple of lofty totals. Philadelphia took 2 of 3 last weekend at Citizens Bank Park, putting the Phillies 6-3 in this year’s matchups, and 13-5 dating to last season.

The Phillies swept a short 2-game set at Citi Field back in May when the clubs met for the first time in 2024. Both games closed with tight MLB odds and split 7.5-run totals.

Severino Facing Phillies for 2nd-Straight Start

Following a disastrous month of August when he posted a 9.17 ERA and New York lost all 4 of his starts, Walker was relegated to relief duty the past three weeks. He made three appearances from the bullpen, working a combined 8 innings and surrendering 4 runs.

One of those relief outings came last Saturday against these Mets, and Walker was outstanding with 3 shutout innings and only 2 hits allowed. Neither of those hits went into the bleachers, a good sign since Walker served up 11 home runs in his previous 7 games (26.2 IP).

Walker started against the Mets in one of the London games, and put forth a respectable outing (5.2 IP, 2 ER). Philadelphia lost the game, part of a current 9-game skid when Walker starts. His last dubya was Mother’s Day weekend in Miami.

Severino Seeks Redemption

Severino faced the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park just 5 days ago, picking up a no-decision in an eventual 6-4 Mets loss that closed with Philadelphia slightly favored at top-rated sportsbooks. He went 6 and allowed 3 runs, all coming plateward on Bryce Harper homers.

That was New York’s sixth loss in Severino’s last nine assignments, his ERA running 4.20 over that span. He has been a far better pitcher in Flushing than away from home, pitching to a 2.80 ERA across 15 assignments (NY 9-6) compared to 4.80 on the road (NY 5-9).

Last week’s matchup was Severino’s first time facing the Phillies since 2018 when he was with the other New York team. Nick Castellanos has the most experience against Severino, going 6-for-18 (.333) in their previous encounters.

Lindor is Still Nursing a Sore Back

Philadelphia began this road trip dropping 2 of 3 in Milwaukee, leaving the Phillies with just one win in their last 5 road games. They have played .600 baseball within their own division up to this point, plotting a 27-18 record against NL East rivals.

At least the Phillies do begin the weekend in good health. The only injury of note is reserve outfielder Austin Hays, who has been out of action the last few weeks due to a kidney infection.

New York is right there with Philadelphia as far as proficiency within the division. The Mets are 26-19 against their fellow NL East foes, and are coming off a home sweep of the Nationals.

They pulled the broom job off without the services of star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who injured his back last weekend in Philadelphia. Lindor is questionable for Thursday’s tilt.

The Pick

At least there’s nothing questionable about the weather this weekend in Flushing, meaning Mother Nature shouldn’t interrupt any of the games. Cloudy, upper-70s and humid with a 5-10 mph NE breeze (in from right-center) is the forecast for Thursday.

New York scored 10 times each of the last two nights against the Nationals, and while they may not be able to keep that streak going, the Mets are a relatively easy MLB pick to make tonight.

MLB Pick: Mets ML (-130) at BetOnline

Mets ML (-130)

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