MLB Best Bet for April 2: Elder Abuse in LA

We’re usually not too keen on putting chalky teams in our MLB picks here at the home office. Chalky teams from the big city who just won the World Series? That’s even more harrowing. How are the 2025 Los Angeles Dodgers supposed to outperform the expectations of the betting public?

By getting even better. The Dodgers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS at press time) are spending $330.6 million on payroll this year according to Spotrac, the most in the majors, and nearly $65 million more than in 2024. A good chunk of that change went to sign Blake Snell in free agency; the former two-time Cy Young winner takes the mound this Wednesday against Atlanta (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS), who have called Bryce Elder up from the minors for a spot start against the defending champions.

No point in overthinking this one. Los Angeles may have been saddled with a regular-season win total of 105.5 games this year, which seems insane, but given their wealth of talent and the way Atlanta has stumbled out of the gate, we jumped on L.A. immediately after they opened as -205 home favorites on the MLB odds board at BetOnline.

How Good Are the Dodgers?

Very good indeed. After six games, Los Angeles leads the National League at press time with a plus-19 run differential, behind only the New York Yankees (plus-22 in three games) and their infamous torpedo bats.

The Dodgers also lead the majors in games played, having crossed the Pacific last month for the Japan Series with the Chicago Cubs. International travel can be grueling, but those extra two games, which L.A. won by a combined score of 10-4, have given the champs an early leg up on the competition – not unlike NFL preseason betting with teams who play at the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

It also means we get to see Snell (3.01 xFIP last year with San Francisco) for the second time this season. He wasn’t quite at his best during his Dodger debut; Snell gave up five hits and four walks to the Detroit Tigers in five innings this past Thursday, but only two earned runs in an eventual 5-4 victory as -164 home faves on the MLB lines. Consider it a warm-up for Wednesday.

What Happened to Atlanta?

Just about everything. After seven straight playoff appearances and a World Series title in 2021, Atlanta ($212.5-million payroll, No. 8 overall) opened the 2025 campaign with a win total of 93.5, tops in the NL East. Then their pitching fell apart; Nos. 2 and 3 starters Spencer Strider (elbow) and Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder) are on the 15-day DL, which is why Elder (4.33 career xFIP in 50 starts) has been recalled from AAA-Gwinnett for Wednesday’s matchup.

This could get ugly. Current Dodgers have a combined .955 lifetime OPS off Elder, with four home runs in 48 at-bats – including one each by former MVPs Shohei Ohtani (2-for-3, 2.333 OPS) and Mookie Betts (2-for-7, two walks, 1.159 OPS). Meanwhile, Snell has held Atlanta hitters to a .641 OPS with two HR in 41 AB.

Even worse for the visitors, their marquee offseason upgrade, LF Jurickson Profar (139 wRC+ last year for San Diego) was handed an 80-game PED suspension on Monday. They’ll probably get back on track when Strider and Lopez return, and make their usual playoff push once Profar is activated, but for now, Atlanta is burning.

The Pick

It’s tempting to put the Over in our baseball picks with Elder on the hill and Wednesday’s weather report calling for clear skies over Chavez Ravine and winds of 15-20 mph blowing towards center-right. Over 8 is priced at -115 at Bookmaker; the ol’ favorite-Over parlay might have some legs here, but we’ll take Snell and his left arm, thank you kindly.

MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-205) at BetOnline 

Dodgers ML (-205)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.