MLB Best Bet for September 8: Here’s Your Best Parlay for Today
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Rainman M.
- September 8, 2024
September 8 MLB Parlay
- Rays-Orioles First-Half Under 4.5 (-160)
- Yankees ML (-155)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+167) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for Sunday’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Rays vs. Orioles and Yankees vs. Cubs.
For your best bets, I will recommend parlaying the Rays-Orioles first-half “under,” and the favored Yankees on the money-line.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, September 08, 2024 – 12:05 PM ET at Camden Yards
Zack Littell
Tampa Bay starts Zack Littell today. He is one of many successful pitchers who find different ways to compensate for the lack of velocity in their pitches.
One thing that Littell does is inject variety into his arsenal. His repertoire consists of five different pitches, none of which he throws with as much as 35% frequency. He throws a slider, split finger, fastball, sinker, and sweeper.
In addition to throwing five different pitches, he mixes up velocities as well, which has the effect of keeping hitters off-balance. His slowest pitch is his 79-mph sweeper. His fastest one is his 92-mph fastball.
Littell’s Spot
Littell found his form at the end of July, when he initiated a four-start streak of allowing one run or fewer in at least five innings. Bettors might be scared off by his last start in which he struggled. However, it is precisely this last start that makes me interested in him.
He had, before his last outing, allowed four earned runs or fewer in five different starts. After each one, he allowed two runs or fewer in his subsequent start.
Littell is a reliable option today because he is in this bounce-back spot.
More Specifics
Tampa Bay’s starter today is also likable because, in his career, he is at his best in day games, as a comparison between day ERA and night ERA shows clearly.
Moreover, Baltimore’s batters are suffering poor form at this moment in time. Eloy Jimenez, for example, is slugging .182 in September. Jimenez is one example of an Orioles batter who is failing to hit anybody right now.
Gunnar Henderson went 0-for-5 yesterday. But even if he were better, one player does not make a difference. Two days ago, he went 2-for-4, and Baltimore still scored only one run.
The Orioles have now scored a combined total of two runs in their last three games. Even if Baltimore batters enjoyed better form, Littell would still be a good bet against them because he owns a 3.28 ERA in his career against the Orioles.
Corbin Burnes
Corbin Burnes starts for the Orioles today.
The recent All-Star selection is displaying his strong form. While his last start, a successful one against the White Sox, might not seem impressive, he had also held the Dodgers to one earned run in his penultimate start.
He enters today’s game having allowed two earned runs in his last ten innings. In addition to enjoying good form, he is in a good spot today because he is better during the day than at night.
Matchup Details
Burnes throws a cutter, curveball, slider, changeup, and sinker. His arsenal is excellent: three different pitches that he throws yield a BA of .200 or lower. In general, he throws hard and adds a lot of spin to his pitches. Heat maps also show his ability to avoid the middle parts of the strike zone.
Teams in general match up poorly against him because he is so good, but the Rays especially match up abysmally. They rank 26th with a .371 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
As one would expect given this information, active Rays batters struggle against Burnes. In 54 at-bats, they hit .167 and slug .296 against him.
Tampa Bay’s Spot
The Rays’ lineup is also in a bad spot today because it is playing after its seven-run performance yesterday.
They mustered three runs or fewer in each of the last four games that followed one in which they won while scoring more than five runs. In those four games, they scored a combined total of seven runs.
Takeaway
In Littell, we get a pitcher in a strong bounce-back spot facing an Orioles lineup that lacks batters who pose a threat to him.
The star, Burnes, will keep this game low-scoring with his usual dominance in general and his usual dominance against Rays batters.
MLB Parlay Leg 1: Rays-Orioles First-Half Under 4.5 (-160) at Bovada
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, September 08, 2024 – 02:20 PM ET at Wrigley Field
Finally a Tough Test
The Chicago Cubs are struggling to compete with the AL’s top teams. They were swept, in mid-August, by the Guardians. While afterward they inspired optimism by thriving against much weaker teams, now they are struggling once again with a top team.
The Yankees are up 2-0 in this series against them.
Jameson Taillon, today’s starter for the Cubs, is experiencing a similar story. His last start, against lowly Pittsburgh, might seem impressive, but there are two things to note:
- Despite facing low-ranking lineups that average few runs per game, he was consistently giving up four earned runs or more per start.
- The Yankees pose a much stiffer challenge. They rank second in runs per game. Conversely, Taillon’s last nine opposing lineups ranked outside the top ten in runs per game.
For the Cubs in general, and specifically for Taillon, it must be hard to adjust to facing such a stronger challenge.
Matchup Details
New York is not only tough in general. The Yankees also match up ideally against Taillon.
Primarily, Taillon throws a fastball, cutter, sweeper, curveball, and sinker. These pitches combine to form over 95 percent of his arsenal.
The Yankees rank, by a large margin, number one against these pitches by righties.
Gerrit Cole
New York is favored heavily today because Gerrit Cole is starting.
Cole is in great form, allowing one run or fewer in four of his last five starts.
The takeaway here is that Chicago has been shut out in three of its last four games and now faces one of baseball’s best pitchers.
MLB Parlay Leg 2: Yankees ML (-155) at Bovada
The Parlay
- Rays-Orioles First-Half Under 4.5 (-160)
- Yankees ML (-155)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+167) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
