MLB Best Bets for March 31: Batters Rejoice in San Diego Tonight
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Rainman M.
- April 1, 2025
MLB Pick: Guardians-Padres First Five Over 4.5 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Nationals vs. Blue Jays, Tigers vs. Mariners, and Guardians vs. Padres.
For your best bets, I will recommend the following first-half wagers: Blue Jays run-line and Guardians-Padres “over.” I will also recommend the Tigers full-game money-line.
Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Monday, March 31, 2025 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Washington’s Starter
Michael Soroka starts for Washington tonight.
Many bettors are prejudiced in Soroka’s favor. A long time ago, it used to be justified to cling to the notion that he’s a good pitcher. In 2019, he achieved a 2.68 ERA.
But it’s long since been time to discard this notion.
Two years ago, his ERA was 6.40. Last season, it was 4.74.
Soroka vs. Blue Jays Batters
Toronto’s lineup certainly lacks a reason to respect Soroka.
All three Blue Jays batters who have faced him more than twice have figured out how to thrive against him.
Bo Bichette is 2-for-5 against him. Andres Gimenez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. slug .714 and .500 against him, respectively.
The Worst Version Yet
This is the worst Michael Soroka that Toronto’s batters will see.
Soroka enters the regular season with the worst possible momentum after he suffered his worst Spring Training ever.
He allowed six earned runs in both of his last Spring Training starts and finished Spring Training with a 7.47 ERA. He walked a ton of batters, gave up lots of hits and home runs, and struggled mightily in general.
Toronto’s Starter
Toronto starts Bowden Francis tonight.
Unlike Soroka, Francis has already found his regular season form.
The latter finished Spring Training with a strong start, allowing one earned run in 5.1 innings.
His outlook is positive tonight because he matches up well against Nationals batters.
They slugged .383 against his favorite pitches from righties last season.
Thanks to their starting pitcher advantage and their wealth of hitters, the Blue Jays will have no problem leading through five innings today.
MLB Pick: First Five Blue Jays -0.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, March 31, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Jackson JobeÂ
Jackson Jobe, one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, will start tonight for the Tigers.
Thus far, he has pitched four innings — all in late September last season — and allowed one hit and zero runs.
He is ready to be a starter after operating out of the bullpen.
His curveball is a new feature in his arsenal that plays well off his fastball and, in this way, makes a solid contribution to an already extensive and balanced selection of pitches with which he can sustain himself over the course of a start.
The stuff is there, and he has some meaningful experience to support him against a Seattle lineup that ranked second-to-last in BA last year and struggled in its first series this year against the lowly A’s.
So far this season, the Mariners are batting .175.
Seattle’s StarterÂ
Emerson Hancock starts tonight for the Mariners because Seattle lacks alternatives — especially with George Kirby still sidelined.
Hancock is a young pitcher who is clearly much less developed and less talented than Jobe. Last year, Hancock’s ERA was 4.75.
Hancock doesn’t have the stuff to make it through the order a second time. After batters have seen him once, he struggles to avoid walking them, to avoid conceding extra-base hits, and to get outs in general.
Unlike Jobe, who in part due to his explosive fastball and his strong endurance has strongly improved his ability to get strikeouts, Hancock lacks an explosive fastball and in general, lacks the ability to maintain even the mediocre-at-best quality of his pitching throughout the course of a start.
Takeaway
Detroit will get to Hancock and hurt him, whereas Jobe will flex his evolving stuff.Â
The Tigers had one of the baseball’s best bullpens last year. Adding Tommy Kahnle, whose ERA was under 2.90 in each of his last three seasons, can only help.
Their bullpen will improve drastically after they faced the Dodgers.
They got a day off to freshen up, whereas the Mariners’ bullpen had to secure a close lead yesterday.
MLB Pick: Tigers ML (+105) at BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, March 31, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Cleveland’s StarterÂ
Luis Ortiz starts for Cleveland tonight. He faced the Padres twice last year.Â
It is common for starting pitchers to perform well against a team after they performed poorly against it — or vice versa.
But Ortiz failed to perform respectably in either of his starts against the Padres.
After yielding a 7.50 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) against them in their first meeting, he yielded a 6.37 FIP against them.
San Diego’s Starter
While Luis Ortiz can’t do well against the Padres, San Diego’s starter tonight can’t do well against anybody.
Kyle Hart is worth fading as he returns to the MLB, where he last pitched in 2020.
In 2020, he suffered a 15.55 ERA. He spent his most recent years struggling in the minors before putting together a 2.69 ERA in the obviously inferior KBO (South Korea’s professional baseball league).
Now, he gets to face MLB batters again. Or, more accurately spoken, MLB batters get to face him again.
MLB Pick: First Five Over 4.5 (-108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
