MLB Best Bets for April 15: Mets to Stay Hot in Minnesota
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LT Profits
- April 15, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Mets ML (-115) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Major League Baseball board brings us a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups on Tuesday with every team in action. And we are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, and all three selections for Tuesday are comprised of two sides and one total. The first pitch for our first selection is tonight at 7:07pm ET.
Looking for more value picks? Check out our YouTube channel for daily betting insights. Today, our expert breaks down the Astros vs. Cardinals and Cubs vs. Padres matchups with top advice you won’t want to miss.
Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 – 7:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
We think that runs will be at a premium north of the border Tuesday evening. Thus, we are backing the Under when Spencer Schwellenbach and the Braves travel up to Canada to visit Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays.
No Sophomore Jinx
Schwellenbach had a fine rookie season for the Braves last season as he pitched much better than his 8-7 record, posting a 3.35 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.34 xFIP. Well, he also deserves a better fate than just a 1-0 record this year too, as he has avoided the Sophomore Jinx so far by posting a remarkable 0.46 ERA and 2.46 xFIP through three starts covering 20 innings.
Obviously, Spencer will not continue his 100% strand rate so far, with the only run allowed in those 20 innings coming on a solo homer, but his metrics still remain as strong as last year. He has an excellent K/BB ratio of 8.55/1.35 per nine innings and is inducing a fine groundball rate of 58.3%, a combination that will win you many Major League games with normal run support. Sadly, he lacked that last element both this year and last, accounting for the modest W/L marks.
He does get the added benefit tonight, though, of facing a Toronto offense that has a below-average wRC+ against right-handed pitching so far of 91 (or 9% below average).
Also Deserves Better
Gausman is another pitcher who has not gotten the run support he needs so far, and as we just mentioned, we expect that lack of support to continue tonight. Nonetheless, he does have a 2.33 ERA through three starts covering 19.1 innings despite being only 1-0. The lack of support could not even get him a win in his last start against the Red Sox last Wednesday, when he did not allow an earned run in eight innings but had to settle for a no-decision.
One early concern for Kevin was his lack of strikeouts over his first two starts, when he had just four punch-outs over 11.1 innings. Those concerns were basically alleviated in that great Wednesday start, though when he posted 10 strikeouts over those eight innings. Also, Stuff+ currently rates his fastball at 108 this year, which would be his highest rating since that metric was introduced in 2020.
Granted, the Braves are a tick above average in wRC+ against right-handers at 102, but the Atlanta lineup has not been very disciplined, with the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 25.7%.
So, what we have here is two very good starters that both deserve better records, with those records held back by some dubious offense. Well, we see none of that changing tonight, which has us betting on the Under in Toronto on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Braves 4 – Blue Jays 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
New York Mets vs. Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 – 7:40 PM EDT at Target Field
This is a matchup of a Mets team that is off to an 11-5 start and a Twins squad that is wallowing at 5-12. We do not see anything changing in Minnesota on Tuesday when Tylor Megill takes on Bailer Ober, so we are betting on the Mets as seemingly cheap road favorites.
Contributing to Great Staff
The key to the Mets’ early success has been pitching, although the offense has now also shown signs of life lately, which may be bad news for the rest of the National League. The Mets lead the Major Leagues in team ERA at 2.22, and Megill has been a nice part of that while going 2-1 with a spiffy 0.63 ERA, allowing just one earned run in 14.1 innings.
Of course, that ERA is unsustainable, but Tylor does have a good 3.54 xFIP, coming on the heels of posting a 3.79 xFIP last year. In fact, he quietly posted an xFIP below 4.00 in three of his first four Major League seasons before this year, so he may be a bit underrated.
One key to that success has been an improvement to his strikeout rate every season, culminating with an excellent K-Rate of 10.50/9 last year. Well, he may be on his way to another career-best with that rate currently at 10.67/9 in the early going. And that rate is validated by a good 12.0% swinging strike rate. Further proof of batters not getting good swings at Megill so far is his outstanding soft/hard contact ratio of 23.7% / 26.3%.
Too Much Hard Air Contact
We have never been huge fans of Ober, even though he may be coming off his best Major League season. Still, it is not as if he was earth-shattering in that seemingly career-year, posting a 3.98 ERA and 3.83 xFIP, his first season ever with an xFIP below 4.00. And he now seems to be back to his mediocre-at-best ways.
He comes in at 0-1 with a bloated 7.11 ERA and 4.73 xFIP. And while we can forgive the ERA at this early stage as it is skewed by one awful start where he allowed eight earned runs in 2.2 innings in his season debut, his propensity for hard air contact remains scary. You see, Bailey is combining a low groundball rate of 26.8% with an awful soft/hard contact ratio of 7.7% / 38.5%, which, unsurprisingly, has already led to three home runs allowed in 12.1 innings.
Even worse, he is facing a Mets offense that was struggling going into last weekend but has awakened with an average of 5.25 runs over the last four games. Moreover, that is with Juan Soto yet to get going.
The bottom line here is that we see both teams continuing the respective paths they have been on this season, with the New Yorkers having a nice pitching edge tonight. Back the Mets as reasonable road favorites on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Mets 5 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-115) at Heritage Sports
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 – 7:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
We had Hunter Brown pegged as a dark-horse Cy Young Award candidate before this season, and he has done nothing so far to dispel that confidence. Thus, we are backing his Astros on Tuesday when they visit Erick Fedde and the Cardinals.
Great Arsenal
Brown has a vast arsenal of six different pitches, and they are not just “show me” pitches either, as five of them are rated 106 or better on Stuff+, led by his sinker at 127 and fastball at 122. His fastball is averaging a career-best 97.3 MPH at the moment, while even the heavy sinker is averaging 96.7 MPH.
So, it is not Hunter’s fault that he is only 1-1 through three starts, as he owns a 2.00 ERA and 2.58 xFIP keying by an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.00/1.50 per nine innings. And he has actually been unlucky with the strikeout rate, as it probably should be higher with a swinging strike rate of 13.0%. Add in an excellent groundball rate of 61.4% like you would expect with his sinker and you can see why we are so high on him.
And, not that he needs any further advantages, this is Brown’s first career start against the Cardinals, a situation that usually favors the pitcher.
Weak Peripherals
Fedde was highly regarded after being selected by the Nationals in the first round of the 2014 draft, but his career has not gone as planned and he even went to pitch in Korea in 2023. Now 32 years old and in his first full season with the Cardinals, he has still not displayed any marked improvement.
He comes in at 1-1 with 4.20 ERA, which is accompanied by a scary 5.99 xFIP. That is what happens when you have a puny strikeout rate of 3.00/9 that is considerably lower than a high walk rate of 4.80/9. And it is not as if Erick makes up for it in the contact department either, as he combines a low 36.4% groundball rate with a 31.8% hard-contact rate.
On top of this, he has benefited from an insanely low BABIP allowed of .119, so we foresee the ERA skyrocketing once that normalizes.
In the end, we see this as a much larger pitching mismatch than this moderate line implies. This has us betting on the Astros as road favorites at Busch Stadium.
Predicted Score: Astros 6 – Cardinals 3
MLB Pick: Astros ML (-127) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
