Top MLB Pick: Astros ML (-122) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups for Wednesday, with all 30 teams in action. And as usual, we are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, and all three of our Wednesday selections are sides comprised of two favorites and one underdog. Please note that the first game goes in the late afternoon at 4:10 pm ET, with the other two plays going at night.
And if you’re looking for more value picks on these same games, be sure to check out our YouTube channel!
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, April 09, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
We have high expectations for Hunter Brown this season, and thus we are backing his Astros when they pay a visit to the Emerald City to take on Luis F. Castillo and the Mariners in a late afternoon affair Wednesday.
Big Year Ahead?
Brown is in his fourth Major League season at age 26 and he posted an xFIP of 3.52 or lower in each of his first three years. Well, he has lived up to our expectations in his first two starts of 2015 despite his 1-1 record, as he sports a 3.00 ERA and an excellent 2.17 xFIP through 12.1 innings with a great strikeout rate of 11.25/9.
The velocity on his fastball is at a career-high 97.7 MPH in the early going, with his heavy 96.9 MPH sinker helping generate a 63.0% groundball rate. Moreover, batters are not getting good swings at Hunter even when they do make contact, as he is yielding a higher soft-contact rate (29.6%) than hard-contact rate (22.2%). This is close to what we expected, so we are not opposed to seeking out Cy Young Award futures on Brown at fat odds.
Moreover, once Brown exits, the Houston bullpen currently ranks second in the majors in collective xFIP at 2.89 while leading the league in collective strikeout rate at a scintillating 12.66/9!
The “Other” Luis Castillo
Take note that the Seattle starter today is rookie Luis F. Castillo, not to be confused with veteran Luis Castillo who is also part of the starting rotation. Luis F. is not a highly regarded prospect, as evidenced by the fact that he is 30 years old and has been pitching professionally since 2012, yet he had pitched just 3.2 Major League innings prior to his Mariner debut last week.
And that start was lackluster with Castillo allowed three earned runs on six hits plus two walks with two strikeouts while lasting only three innings. He averaged an ordinary 92.7 MPH on a fastball he threw 55.9% of the time and was very hittable, with a disgusting soft/hard contact ratio of 7.1% / 28.6%. His only pitch that graded above average in Stuff+ was his slider at 107, so perhaps he can improve a bit with more slider usage.
Regardless, we are anticipating another early exit. And while the Seattle bullpen is a decent 11th in xFIP at 3.87, we are not sure that can continue while pitching to contact, with that unit 23rd in strikeout rate at 7.74/9.
So, what we have here is a darkhorse Cy Young contender in Brown taking on a 30-year-old rookie that has not shown much in the majors. Add in a more reliable bullpen and bet on the Astros as moderate road favorites.
Predicted Score: Astros 4 – Mariners 2
MLB Pick: Astros ML (-122) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, April 09, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
We are looking for an upset down in Tampa on Wednesday night when Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels visit Ryan Pepiot and the Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
Control Improved with Age
Kikuchi is getting on in age at 33 years old, but he is coming off arguably his best Major League season. Sure, he finished with a losing 9-10 record and an ordinary 4.05 ERA, but his xFIP told a different story at a career best 3.20. He had a double-digit strikeout rate of 10.55/9, but the bigger story was his walk rate after battling control issues his entire career previously.
That walk rate was also a career best at 2.25/9, which is more than acceptable given the nice K-rate. That marked the second straight season that he had a walk rate below 3.00 as it was 2.58 in 2023. All this improvement came after walks had held him back since coming to the majors from Japan, culminating with a career-worst 5.19 walks per nine in 2022.
Yusei is 0-1 through two starts this year with just a 4.50 ERA and 4.80 xFIP, but that is only through 12 innings after all. The veteran southpaw now gets some relief facing a Tampa Bay offense that has been abysmal vs. left-handers thus far with a wRC+ of 44.
Was ERA real?
Pepiot had decent frontline stats in his first full season as a starter last year for the Rays going 8-8 with a 3.60 ERA over 26 starts covering 130 innings. But he was the opposite of Kikuchi in that his ERA outperformed his xFIP of 4.05, as he benefited from a low BABIP allowed of .262. And that pattern has continued over the early going this year with a 2.45 ERA through 11 innings but with a 3.89 xFIP.
Ryan had a nice strikeout rate last year at 9.83/9, although that was lower than Kikuchi’s rate and Pepiot also had a higher walk rate at 3.32/9. Moreover, those numbers are lining up again early on this season with the K/BB ratio at 9.00/3.27 per nine innings. What is more concerning thus far, though, is a Stuff+ of 98 on his fastball after that figure was at 108 last season.
So, in the end, it appears Kikuchi grades out a bit better than Pepiot metrically, which is a great trait for an underdog. Add in the Rays’ struggles with lefties early on and we are backing the Angels with nice underdog value.
Predicted Score: Angels 4 – Rays 3
MLB Pick: Angels ML (+126) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, April 09, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
We are not fans of Taijuan Walker at his advancing age, so we are backing the promising Grant Holmes and the Braves when they host Walker’s Phillies in Atlanta.
Is He Done?
Walker is now 32 years old, and he is coming off his two worst seasons in the Major Leagues. After slumping to a 4.38 ERA and 4.83 xFIP in his first year with the Phillies in 2023, he was even worse for them last season, posting a 7.10 ERA and 5.29 xFIP. He was even delegated to the bullpen at one point, and while he tossed only 83.2 innings, we still think that was enough to show that his career could quite possibly be done.
And our opinion about Taijuan did not change with him tossing six scoreless innings in his 2025 debut last week, as it came against a Colorado offense that struggles away from Coors Field. Furthermore, he earned just a 4.44 xFIP for that start.
Stuff+ basically confirms Walker’s decline as his overall figure went from 100 in 2021 to 98 in 2022 to 91 in 2023 and all the way down to 84 last year. He also had an abysmal K/BB ratio last season of 6.24/3.98 per nine innings, and even in the scoreless start against the Rockies last week, he had only four strikeouts in six innings.
Nice Numbers as Rookie
While Walker is in the twilight of his career, Holmes is just getting started. He made his Major League debut with the Braves last season and pitched well for a staff in need of a boost due to an assortment of injuries. He may have finished with only a 2-1 record, but he posted a 3.56 ERA with a good aligning 3.52 xFIP in 26 appearances covering 68.1 innings.
Also, unlike Walker, Grant had an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.22/1.98 per nine innings. He has three pitches he can throw for strikes, with a nice separation between his 94.8 MPH fastball and his slider and curveball, both in the mid-80s. Yet, it is those two off-speed pitches that each earned a 103 Stuff+ rating.
To summarize, we have a veteran pitcher in Walker that has been mostly ineffective over the last two years and a younger Holmes that did not appear to be intimidated when debuting in the majors last year. We do not expect things to change tonight so we are betting on the Braves as home favorites.
Predicted Score: Braves 5 – Phillies 3
MLB Pick: Braves ML (-127) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
