MLB Best Bets for April 10: Bassitt Is Boston’s New Molasses Disaster

We can’t help ourselves here at the ranch: Chris Bassitt is our spirit animal. He might not look like an athlete out there on the mound, especially at the advanced age of 36, but don’t be fooled – Bassitt is a beast. A beast that will kill you with 70-mph curveballs and sweepers.

In case they needed reminding, the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets have already gotten a taste of what Bassitt is cooking. Now it’s time for the Boston Red Sox (6-6, minus-0.53 betting units as I write this) to dish up. They’ll host Bassitt and the Toronto Blue Jays (7-5, plus-1.87 units) this Thursday; BetOnline has Toronto at +104 on their MLB odds board as we go to press, shortly after the Jays opened at +100. We’ll buy that for a loonie.

Is Chris Bassitt the Best Pitcher in Baseball?

He is right now. That’s based on a very small sample size of two starts, but Bassitt leads the majors with a 0.71 ERA and a 1.02 FIP, having yet to give up a home run this year.

There will be some regression. The Blue Jays have stranded 92.9% of Bassitt’s base runners (as per FanGraphs), which isn’t sustainable; then again, Bassitt has also given up a .364 BABIP, well above his career average of .289. Maybe we are seeing the genuine article in these two appearances.

The bigger question is whether Bassitt can continue to strike out 11.37 batters per nine innings. That’s also well above his career rate of 8.36 K/9, although again, Bassitt’s Ks have grown over time as he gets older and craftier. The difference appears to be in his curveball, which has induced a 42.9 Whiff% (as per Baseball Savant) compared to 29.2% last year. We’ll soon see if that holds up.

Can the Red Sox Touch Bassitt?

Maybe. They rank fifth at FanGraphs in hitting at plus-2.4 WAR, although an outsized portion has come off the bat of RF Wilyer Abreu, who leads the majors with a 1.289 OPS. Speaking of small sample sizes, Abreu is 4-for-10 lifetime off Bassitt with two walks and a 1.000 OPS; however, all current Sox hitters have a combined .902 OPS off Bassitt in 96 at-bats.

On the flip side, we have Walker Buehler (8.68 ERA, 6.39 FIP) making his third start for Boston after leaving the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers in December. It is… not going well. Buehler has yet to find his previous two-time All-Star form after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in August 2022. Buehler has posted minus-0.3 WAR since his return in 2024. He might be cooked, folks.

As for the Jays’ bats, they rank 10th in the bigs at 2.0 WAR, although again, George Springer (1.254 OPS) can’t possibly keep this up. His .459 batting average would leave Springer fourth in the MLB record books behind these recent Negro League additions:

• Tetelo Vargas (.4711, 1943 New York Cubans)
• Josh Gibson (.4659, 1943 Homestead Grays)
• Lyman Bostock (.4658, 1941 Birmingham Black Barons)

The Pick

Of course, there will probably be other pitchers in Thursday’s game besides Bassitt and Buehler. Toronto’s bullpen has recovered from last year’s collapse, but only enough to move from last place to No. 15 with plus-0.3 FanGraphs WAR, well behind No. 5 Boston at plus-0.7 WAR.

Let’s not worry too much about these sample sizes – or the weather, which looks nice enough for this late-afternoon start – but size your bets accordingly for protection, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays (+104) at BetOnline

Blue Jays (+104)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.