MLB Best Bets for April 11: Athletics to Grade Straight A’s on Friday
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LT Profits
- April 11, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Major League Baseball weekend begins with a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups on Friday with every team in action. And we are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, and all three of our Friday selections are sides comprised of two underdogs and one very small favorite. The first pitch for our first selection is tonight at 8:10pm ET.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, April 11, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field
The Twins are off to a 4-9 start while the Tigers have a winning 7-5 mark. However, we foresee some correction in Minnesota Friday with David Festa on the mound taking on Detroit’s Reese Olson, so we are backing the Twins as small favorites.
Was Better than the ERA
Festa is being recalled from Triple-A to make this start tonight, and remember he was a highly regarded prospect when he was first called up to the Major Leagues in the middle of last season. And while he finished only 2-6 with an unsightly 4.90 ERA at the big-league level, his underlying metrics painted a different picture that shows some nice promise.
For starters, he had a considerably better xFIP of 3.58 as a rookie. That fine figure was keyed by an excellent strikeout rate of 10.77/9, continuing the high K-Rates he displayed at every minor league stop. David has improved his velocity every year since his first professional season in 2021, with his fastball averaging 94.7 MPH with the Twins last season. Well, it seems that velocity is still improving, with the heater averaging 95.2 MPH in two Triple-A starts this year.
And once Festa departs, he has the support of a Minnesota bullpen that is currently sixth in the majors with a 2.64 ERA while averaging just over one strikeout per inning at 9.06/9.
Not Facing White Sox Tonight
Olson has also shown promise in his first two seasons with the Tigers, posting a 3.99 ERA and 3.91 xFIP in 2023 and a 3.53 ERA and 3.72 xFIP last season. However, he had some bouts with control issues both seasons and that weakness has been more apparent this year, contributing to a 5.06 ERA through two starts.
Reese has walked five batters in 10.2 innings (4.22/9), but even more alarming was his last outing against the worst offense in baseball in the White Sox. Yes, he managed to go six innings and get the win with the help of the offense supporting him with seven runs, but only 52 of his 94 pitches were thrown for strikes. He got away with that wildness against the Sox but would not figure to do the same tonight against a more competent offense.
Moreover, Olson does not have the same bullpen support that Festa has, with the Detroit pen 21st in ERA at 4.20 and 22nd in strikeout rate at 7.97/9.
We think that the Twins are a better team than they have shown thus far this season, and we give them the pitching edge tonight from start to finish. That is enough for us to bet on Minnesota as scant favorites at home.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Tigers 2
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, April 11, 2025 – 08:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
We are calling for an upset in the Show Me State Friday night when Andre Pallante and the Cardinals play hosts to Aaron Nola and the Phillies at Busch Stadium.
Slow Start for Nola
Nola is still considered one of the best pitchers in baseball after going 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA and 3.44 xFIP last season. However, after considering him underrated earlier in his career, we have seen enough decline in recent seasons that we now consider him a little overrated, and his slow start to this season only helps enforce that belief.
We are not saying Aaron is a bad pitcher by any means, but we do not consider him as “elite” anymore, as some would lead you to believe. For evidence, look no further than his strikeout rate, which has had a straight-line decline every year since 2020. That K-Rate was an outstanding 12.11/9 that season before dropping every year and settling at a career low 8.89/9 last season.
Well, the early indications here in 2025 are not good either with a further strikeout-drop to 7.94/9 over his first two starts covering 11.1 innings. He comes in at 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA, and he has already surrendered four home runs in his two outings.
Continued Improvement
Conversely, Pallante showed marked improvement last season in his first year as a full-time starter. While he finished only 8-8, he finished with a solid 3.78 ERA and 3.89 xFIP, not suffering from the heavier workload after pitching mainly in relief his first two seasons. His best pitch is a heavy 95.0 MPH sinker, and that pitch helped him lead the Major Leagues in groundball rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched at an outstanding 61.8%.
Well, that success has continued this year in the early going as Andre is 1-0 through two starts with a 3.86 ERA, 3.27 xFIP and an out-of-this-world 77.8% groundball rate! That sinker currently merits a 127 rating on Stuff+, and when batters are not hitting groundballs, they are swinging over the top of the sinker more this year with it having more “drop”. Thus, Pallante’s strikeout rate early on is 8.68/9, which would be a career high.
So, with Nola not looking like the great pitcher he once was and Pallante just beginning to come into his own, we see nice value with the Cardinals at an underdog price at home Friday night.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 5 – Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (+115) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
New York Mets vs. The Athletics
Friday, April 11, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
The Mets have overcome a lack of offense this season with great pitching to go 8-4, but we do not think they have that pitching edge in this game. Thus, we are backing JP Sears and the Athletics as home underdogs when they host Griffin Canning and the Mets in Sacramento.
Wrong Team Favored?
In fact, we are not so sure that the Mets should be favored in this game. Sears is coming off a season last year when he went 11-13 while pitching for a team that finished 69-93, and he is one of the keys to the A’s expected improvement this upcoming season. And he has certainly looked the part of a pitcher with a promising future early on.
JP is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA and two Quality Starts in as many outings while reaching the seventh inning in each start, which is not common these days this early in the season. He also deserves some extra credit for his second start coming in the altitude of Colorado, where he allowed three runs in 6.1 innings. Sears will not blow anyone away, but he has very good control with a 6.5% walk rate last season (2.44 walks per 9 innings) and that rate at 3.9% so far this season (1.38/9).
He now faces an underachieving Mets offense that is 23rd in the majors in batting (.210) and 21st in OPS (.642) while averaging only 3.7 runs per game.
Familiar Opponent
Canning comes in at 0-1 through two starts with a spiffy 2.79 ERA. We remain skeptical though about a pitcher in his sixth season that has never posted an ERA below 3.99, and his current xFIP of 3.66 lags behind his ERA. He is also struggling with his command with the walk rate at 4.66/9 while allowing a lot of hard contact.
In fact, he has a pathetic soft/hard contact ratio of 8.0% / 44.0% in the early going. Yes, we get that is only through 9.2 innings, but that ratio was also weak through a full season last year with the Angels at 12.8% / 36.7%, a season in which he finished with a 5.19 ERA and 4.75 xFIP over 171.2 innings.
And since he spent his first five seasons with the Angels, the A’s are very familiar with Canning, having been in the same division with him before this year. And he did not pitch well in two starts against them last season when they were still in Oakland, surrendering seven earned runs on 11 hits plus three walks in two starts covering 10.1 innings.
To summarize, while both pitchers are off to nice starts on paper, we think that Sears has the more “real” start of the two, while Canning has had great luck escaping poor control and hard contact. Add is Canning’s struggles against Oakland last year and we are betting on the Athletics as home underdogs to spring the upset.
Predicted Score: Athletics 6 – Mets 4
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+115) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
