MLB Best Bets for April 12: Let’s Give Kansas City Royal Treatment
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Rainman M.
- April 12, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Royals ML (+123) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s action. Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Tigers vs. Twins, Phillies vs. Cardinals, Red Sox vs. White Sox, and Royals vs. Guardians.
For your best bets, I will recommend the following first-half wagers: Tigers ML, Phillies-Cardinals “over,” Red Sox-White Sox “under.” I will also recommend one full-game wager: Royals money-line.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 02:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Detroit’s Starter
Jackson Jobe starts for the Tigers today.
Jobe took a huge step forward in what was his second-ever professional start. Relative to his first start, he lowered his opposing hard contact rate by over 50 percent.
Jobe vs. Twins Batters
Jobe’s last start did come against the White Sox. But that is no reason to dismiss his performance. Objectively speaking, he throws pitches that qualify as good regardless of who his opponent is largely because they combine an impressive mix of velocity and spin.
His favorite pitches are the four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, sinker and curveball. And the Twins actually perform worse against these pitches from righties than the White Sox do. Minnesota ranks 29th with a .309 slugging rate against those pitches from righties.
So, sure, if Jobe is facing the Yankees, then you can point out with cynicism that he thrived against the lowly White Sox. But today, we have every reason to expect him to continue to thrive.
Minnesota’s Awful Starter
Chris Paddack starts for the Twins today.
Paddack has been getting hit hard this season, resulting in two terrible starts:
- He allowed nine earned runs to the White Sox.
- He conceded three earned runs in four innings to Houston’s vastly underperforming lineup.
Paddack vs. Tigers Batters
The Twins’ starter today throws a four-seamer, changeup, slider and curveball.
Detroit’s lineup has a solid outlook against this pitcher not simply because it continues to help its team win games and score a lot of runs, but also because it ranks third with a .543 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: First-Half Tigers ML (-103) at BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 02:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Cristopher Sánchez’s Resume
Cristopher Sánchez starts for the Phillies today. His 4.09 ERA might not seem so bad. But one of his two starts came at home against a Colorado team whose lineup has been quite weak in general and is still always worse away from high-altitude Denver.
While his other start came against the Dodgers, they have been subpar against left-handed pitching.
Sanchez vs. Cardinals Batters
Sanchez will face his toughest test yet, one that is even tougher than the Dodgers team that accumulated four runs in 5.2 innings against him.
He throws a sinker, changeup and slider. St. Louis ranks seventh with a .442 slugging rate against these pitches from lefties.
Miles Mikolas Should Fear the Phillies
Miles Mikolas starts for the Cardinals today.
While the Cardinals’ lineup could hit the first-half “over” by itself, we get strong additional assistance from Mikolas, whom Philly batters love to see. Collectively, they slug .450 against him, but this number is deflated by Bryson Stott’s poor track record in 17 at-bats against Mikolas.
Three different Philly batters slug over .570 against Mikolas in at least seven at-bats. When facing Mikolas:
- Brandon Marsh slugs .500.
- Trea Turner .440.
- Nick Castellanos .464.
- Edmundo Sosa has a home run in two at-bats.
A lot of Philly batters are thus ready to do serious damage.
MLB Pick: Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals First-Half Over 4.5 (+100) at BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Rate Field
Boston’s Starter
Richard Fitts starts for the Red Sox today. In his last start, Fitts allowed three earned runs in six innings against Toronto.
Despite what his ERA in that game says, he did a wonderful job of inducing soft contact, which is pretty much all a pitcher can do — a pitcher lacks control over a ball once it is hit, much like an NBA defender lacks control over a shot attempt when it is in the air.
His 3.64 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he truly performed.
Fitts vs. White Sox Batters
Fitts’ outlook is terrific today against the White Sox because they match up terribly against him.
He primarily throws a four-seamer, slider, sweeper and a curveball. Chicago ranks dead last with a .225 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
MartÃn Pérez
Chicago starts its best source of hope, MartÃn Pérez.
Pérez is enjoying a tremendous start to his season. He has allowed one earned run in 12.1 combined innings after locking down both the Twins and Tigers, respectively.
Boston batters have all of five extra-base hits — all doubles and no triples or home runs — in 63 at-bats against him. And now they face the best version of Perez to date, whereas they will offer a terrible version of themselves that has failed to exceed two runs in four of their last five games.
MLB Pick: Red Sox/White Sox First-Half Under 4 (+110) at BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, April 12, 2025 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Kansas City’s Starter
Michael Lorenzen starts for the Royals tonight.
Lorenzen bounced back after a tough opening start by limiting the Twins to one run in six innings. He’ll keep the momentum going against a Cleveland lineup that he threw 8.2 shutout innings against last year.
Cleveland’s Struggling Starter
The Guardians start Luis Ortiz today.
Ortiz doesn’t strike out many batters, because he lacks the quality in his arsenal to do so. If he leaves pitches over the plate, he’s likelier to give up a home run — he gave up two home runs in his last start. He regularly gives up hard contact against his pitches.
However, if he throws balls, then he won’t induce whiffs and will, instead, walk a lot of batters, as when he walked batters in his first start in which he threw much fewer pitches in the strike zone than he did in his last start.
The Odds
Given Ortiz’s struggles and his apparent poor quality, I find it absurd that Cleveland is favored when Kansas City starts a competent pitcher and has a good bullpen that ranks ninth with a 3.28 ERA. Kansas City is my favorite underdog today and makes for a great plus-money play.
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+123) at BetOnlineÂ
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
