MLB Best Bets for April 13: The Brewers Are Drunk on Success
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Rainman M.
- April 13, 2025
Top MLB Pick: First-Half Brewers ML (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s action.
Five games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Giants vs. Yankees, Royals vs. Guardians, Tigers vs. Twins, Phillies vs. Cardinals and Brewers vs. Diamondbacks.
For your best bets, I will recommend the Giants full-game moneyline, Guardians full-game moneyline, Phillies full-game run line, Tigers first-half moneyline and Brewers first-half moneyline.
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, April 13, 2025 – 01:35 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Underdog Logan Webb
San Francisco is the underdog in this matchup even though Logan Webb is pitching.
Webb owns a 1.89 ERA through three starts after holding his last two opponents, Houston and Cincinnati, to a combined total of one earned run in 14 innings. He accumulated 16 strikeouts to zero walks during this two-start stretch.
His elite form positions him positively as an underdog against the Yankees, for whom Carlos Rodon will start.
Rodon is having a rough season, apparently having regressed relative to last year. His issues with command enable opposing batters to accumulate walks and home runs.
In San Francisco, we get the stronger starting pitcher as the underdog, and we also get the stronger bullpen — the Giants’ bullpen ranks number two with a 1.75 ERA. It is true that the Giants are not generally as well-known for their offense, but they are hitting the ball well now. They enter today’s game averaging seven runs in their last three games.
MLB Pick: Giants ML (+108) at BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Sunday, April 13, 2025 – 01:40 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Don’t Underrate Ben Lively
Ben Lively starts for the Guardians today.
You might rush to fade him if you look at his numbers against the Royals. But this would be a grave mistake because he has always had to face them in their venue. Lively has struggled more on the road in general, whereas at home he has thrown five shutout innings this year.
Lively’s outlook against the Royals this year is solid because they rank 29th with a .249 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Guardians’ Batters
Cleveland’s lineup owns a strong outlook against Kansas City starter Cole Ragans. The Guardians rank eighth in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Bullpen
Their lineup’s matchup edge is just one reason why I find it ridiculous that the Guardians are underdogs at home in this matchup. In addition to their stronger starting pitching, they will also display superior relief pitching. Their bullpen is one of five to be yielding an ERA below 2.20.
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+113) at BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, April 13, 2025 – 02:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Outlook for Detroit’s Starter
Casey Mize pitches for the Tigers today.
Mize loves facing Minnesota’s batters. Collectively, they slug .275 against him. His success against them extends to his outings in their venue. Most recently, he threw six shutout innings against them last year in Minnesota.
One must expect him to flourish against the Twins because he matches up well against them. They rank 27th with a .295 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Detroit’s Lineup Will Thrive
The Tigers get a soft test today in the form of Simeon Woods Richardson, who has struggled to limit walks and hard contact.
He matches up poorly against a Tigers lineup that ranks sixth with a .490 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties. Detroit batters will easily secure Mize a lead through five innings.
MLB Pick: First-Half Tigers ML (-102) at BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, April 13, 2025 – 02:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Pitching Mismatch
With Zack Wheeler starting, the Phillies have a huge pitching advantage.
The Phillies aren’t favored more heavily, because this game takes place outside of their venue. However, St. Louis’ Busch Stadium is a kind of second home for Wheeler. In his career, he boasts a 2.81 ERA in five starts there.
Wheeler is already in a great bounce-back spot regardless of his opponent — he always thrived last year after the rare instance in which he allowed four or more earned runs
Lefty Matthew Liberatore, who is better as a reliever than as a starter, will test his endurance as St. Louis’ starter today. Philly batters must look forward to facing him. They rank eighth with a .443 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
They must also look forward to facing St. Louis’s 24th-ranked bullpen.
MLB Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-104) at BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, April 13, 2025 – 02:15 PM EDT at Chase Field
Freddy Peralta
Milwaukee starts Freddy Peralta today.
So far this season, he held:
- The Yankees to two runs in their venue.
- The Royals to one run in his venue.
- The Rockies to one run in their venue.
His success will continue in Chase Field, where he apparently loves pitching. In Arizona’s venue, he enjoys a career 0.64 ERA in 14 innings.
The Brewers Have Their Bats Ready
Arizona starts Zac Gallen today.
Gallen might be a bigger name than Peralta, but Brewers’ batters don’t care. They own a collective .519 slugging rate against him. Five different ones slug at least .500 with him on the mound.
MLB Pick: First-Half Brewers ML (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
